Jannik Sinner holds the top position in the 2026 US Open market at 50.5% implied probability, driven by his 44-3 record this season, including a Wimbledon title in July and multiple Masters 1000 crowns on hard courts where his baseline consistency and serve have translated effectively. Carlos Alcaraz sits at 12.5% despite his 2025 title defense, tempered by a right wrist injury that has sidelined him since April with limited high-intensity training ahead of a planned Cincinnati return. Alexander Zverev follows at 11.8% after capturing his first major at Roland Garros and maintaining the No. 3 ranking. Novak Djokovic and emerging players like Ben Shelton trail further back, reflecting Sinner’s current form edge and Alcaraz’s uncertain fitness in a hard-court major where recent results and physical readiness heavily influence trader positioning.