Aryna Sabalenka leads trader consensus at 32.5% implied probability due to her status as the WTA world No. 1, a dominant early 2026 season record exceeding 26 wins against just two losses, and refined serving that has boosted hold percentages on hard courts ahead of the US Open. Elena Rybakina follows at 19.4% after strong Australian Open results, including a straight-sets win over Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals that highlighted her power game suited to Flushing Meadows conditions. Swiatek sits at 16.5% on the back of overall consistency and recent major final appearances, though her historical hard-court results lag behind the top two. Emerging momentum for Victoria Mboko at 10.1% stems from breakout deep runs, while Coco Gauff at 8.5% draws support from prior US Open title experience and versatile all-court play. These prices reflect crowd assessment of current form, surface fit, and head-to-head trends entering the hard-court swing.