Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to Iranian Strait of Hormuz disruptions, represent the core factor shaping trader sentiment. Oil transit volumes through the strait have stabilized near 4.2 million barrels per day in early 2026 after falling from 9.3 million in 2023 amid prior attacks, prompting major carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and adding 10–14 days to transit times. This has sustained elevated freight surcharges of $1,500–$4,000 per container and insurance premiums, contributing to Brent crude price rebounds above $90 per barrel. Recent April 2026 statements from Houthi leaders and Iranian advisors underscore the risk of a “double chokepoint” scenario affecting nearly 25% of global oil and gas flows if escalation occurs, with market pricing reflecting uncertainty ahead of potential diplomatic or military developments in the region.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডবাব এল-মান্দেব প্রণালী কার্যকরভাবে... দ্বারা বন্ধ?
বাব এল-মান্দেব প্রণালী কার্যকরভাবে... দ্বারা বন্ধ?
$2,867,961 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
৩১শে মে
4%
June 30
14%
September 30
21%
$2,867,961 Vol.
৩১শে মে
$838,839 Vol.
4%
June 30
$39,260 Vol.
14%
September 30
$7,919 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to Iranian Strait of Hormuz disruptions, represent the core factor shaping trader sentiment. Oil transit volumes through the strait have stabilized near 4.2 million barrels per day in early 2026 after falling from 9.3 million in 2023 amid prior attacks, prompting major carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and adding 10–14 days to transit times. This has sustained elevated freight surcharges of $1,500–$4,000 per container and insurance premiums, contributing to Brent crude price rebounds above $90 per barrel. Recent April 2026 statements from Houthi leaders and Iranian advisors underscore the risk of a “double chokepoint” scenario affecting nearly 25% of global oil and gas flows if escalation occurs, with market pricing reflecting uncertainty ahead of potential diplomatic or military developments in the region.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
ভলিউম
$2,867,961শেষ তারিখ
Apr 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to Iranian Strait of Hormuz disruptions, represent the core factor shaping trader sentiment. Oil transit volumes through the strait have stabilized near 4.2 million barrels per day in early 2026 after falling from 9.3 million in 2023 amid prior attacks, prompting major carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and adding 10–14 days to transit times. This has sustained elevated freight surcharges of $1,500–$4,000 per container and insurance premiums, contributing to Brent crude price rebounds above $90 per barrel. Recent April 2026 statements from Houthi leaders and Iranian advisors underscore the risk of a “double chokepoint” scenario affecting nearly 25% of global oil and gas flows if escalation occurs, with market pricing reflecting uncertainty ahead of potential diplomatic or military developments in the region.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ভলিউম
$2,867,961শেষ তারিখ
Apr 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to Iranian Strait of Hormuz disruptions, represent the core factor shaping trader sentiment. Oil transit volumes through the strait have stabilized near 4.2 million barrels per day in early 2026 after falling from 9.3 million in 2023 amid prior attacks, prompting major carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and adding 10–14 days to transit times. This has sustained elevated freight surcharges of $1,500–$4,000 per container and insurance premiums, contributing to Brent crude price rebounds above $90 per barrel. Recent April 2026 statements from Houthi leaders and Iranian advisors underscore the risk of a “double chokepoint” scenario affecting nearly 25% of global oil and gas flows if escalation occurs, with market pricing reflecting uncertainty ahead of potential diplomatic or military developments in the region.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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