The Bank of England's decision to hold the policy rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote in late July, with inflation easing to 2.6% year-over-year in June, underpins the 72.5% market-implied probability against a rate hike in 2026. Elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict have shifted earlier expectations of cuts toward a flat path for the remainder of the year, as reflected in SONIA futures and the June Bank of England Market Participants Survey. While three MPC members favored an immediate increase and some forward curves price modest tightening into 2027, consensus forecasts from institutions including Bank of America and Oxford Economics anticipate no change through year-end, with the next decision on 17 September serving as the immediate catalyst for any sentiment shift.