**The Dutch House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer) faces no realistic prospect of dissolution in 2026.** Following the October 29, 2025, snap election triggered by the collapse of the prior Schoof cabinet, voters installed a new parliament. The resulting Jetten cabinet—a D66-VVD-CDA minority government—was sworn in on February 23, 2026, and holds 66 seats. As of early September 2026, the coalition is navigating its first budget cycle through parliament without triggering a confidence crisis or coalition breakup. Negotiations over welfare reforms, tax measures, and spending priorities produced an 11th-hour agreement, allowing the draft to advance to the Council of State and Prinsjesdag presentation despite lacking formal opposition backing. Recent polling shows modest shifts but no surge in volatility that would prompt early elections. Dutch constitutional practice allows dissolution via royal decree when a cabinet loses parliamentary confidence or internal support collapses, typically followed by elections within roughly 100 days. However, the current term runs until 2030, and no major institutional conflicts, party withdrawals, or legislative standoffs have materialized in the past several months. The minority arrangement requires case-by-case opposition deals, yet budget talks concluded without forcing a fresh vote. Traders therefore assign only a low single-digit probability to dissolution this year, reflecting the absence of catalysts that historically precede snap elections in the Netherlands.