A Bolivian court reissued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after declaring him in contempt for failing to attend a human trafficking trial alleging he fathered a child with a 15-year-old during his presidency, suspending proceedings pending his capture. Morales, leader of the MAS party's Evista faction amid its rift with President Arce's Arcistas, remains at large in the Chapare coca region stronghold guarded by militant supporters who have vowed national unrest if pursued. With no arrest reported in the ensuing days despite the warrant, traders price a 75% "No" probability by May 31, reflecting consensus on formidable logistical barriers, escalation risks, and historical resistance patterns in Bolivia's polarized politics.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$12,727 Vol.
$12,727 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$12,727 Vol.
$12,727 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A Bolivian court reissued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after declaring him in contempt for failing to attend a human trafficking trial alleging he fathered a child with a 15-year-old during his presidency, suspending proceedings pending his capture. Morales, leader of the MAS party's Evista faction amid its rift with President Arce's Arcistas, remains at large in the Chapare coca region stronghold guarded by militant supporters who have vowed national unrest if pursued. With no arrest reported in the ensuing days despite the warrant, traders price a 75% "No" probability by May 31, reflecting consensus on formidable logistical barriers, escalation risks, and historical resistance patterns in Bolivia's polarized politics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
ভলিউম
$12,727শেষ তারিখ
May 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A Bolivian court reissued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after declaring him in contempt for failing to attend a human trafficking trial alleging he fathered a child with a 15-year-old during his presidency, suspending proceedings pending his capture. Morales, leader of the MAS party's Evista faction amid its rift with President Arce's Arcistas, remains at large in the Chapare coca region stronghold guarded by militant supporters who have vowed national unrest if pursued. With no arrest reported in the ensuing days despite the warrant, traders price a 75% "No" probability by May 31, reflecting consensus on formidable logistical barriers, escalation risks, and historical resistance patterns in Bolivia's polarized politics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$12,792শেষ তারিখ
May 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A Bolivian court reissued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after declaring him in contempt for failing to attend a human trafficking trial alleging he fathered a child with a 15-year-old during his presidency, suspending proceedings pending his capture. Morales, leader of the MAS party's Evista faction amid its rift with President Arce's Arcistas, remains at large in the Chapare coca region stronghold guarded by militant supporters who have vowed national unrest if pursued. With no arrest reported in the ensuing days despite the warrant, traders price a 75% "No" probability by May 31, reflecting consensus on formidable logistical barriers, escalation risks, and historical resistance patterns in Bolivia's polarized politics.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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