The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve’s narrow layout, unforgiving walls, and sequence of tight chicanes have historically produced frequent incidents that trigger safety cars, a pattern reinforced by the 2025 race where multiple deployments occurred, including a late one following contact between teammates. Montreal’s changeable June weather adds another variable that can slicken the track surface and increase the chance of lock-ups or spins, while the 2026 technical regulations introduce unknown handling characteristics on a circuit that punishes small errors. Traders appear to weigh these track-specific factors and recent precedent when pricing the implied probability of a safety car at 68 percent for Yes.