Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon features closely matched turnout probabilities centered on the 7.5M–8.25M range, reflecting historical midterm benchmarks of 7.8 million votes in 2022 and 8.3 million in 2018. Republican registration advantages and Moody's consistent polling lead support expectations near or above 8 million, while Democratic strength in early mail ballot returns and no-party-affiliation mobilization introduce uncertainty that sustains bids for both lower and higher totals. Low primary participation around 25 percent statewide and the state's rightward shift since 2024 further shape trader views, with separation likely depending on get-out-the-vote intensity among independents and partisan turnout gaps in the final weeks before November 3.