Congress faces a December 11 funding deadline under the continuing resolution enacted in September, with no full-year appropriations bills completed for FY2027. The November 3 midterm elections will reshape bargaining leverage in the lame-duck session, where leaders must decide between an omnibus package, another short-term CR, or targeted minibuses amid disputes over defense levels, border security, disaster relief, and policy riders. Lawmakers in both parties have signaled preference for avoiding a lapse, though prior partial shutdowns since 2025 highlight procedural and partisan hurdles. Trader consensus on prediction markets currently prices the probability of a shutdown beginning December 12 in the low-to-mid 30s, reflecting expectations of further stopgap measures while acknowledging risks from election outcomes and unresolved spending differences.