**Graham Platner, the former Democratic nominee for Maine’s U.S. Senate seat, dropped out of the 2026 race in early July after a former girlfriend publicly alleged sexual assault from late 2021, alongside earlier reports of other relationship misconduct.** He has consistently denied all claims. No criminal charges have been filed in the roughly six weeks since the allegations surfaced, and public reporting through mid-August shows no confirmed active police investigation or prosecutorial action. Traders assign a 98.5% probability to “No” because the window to August 31 is now under ten days, the allegations are months old, and standard charging timelines for such matters—especially without prior public investigative steps—make filing before month-end highly improbable. The market reflects trader consensus on the absence of any recent catalyst, such as new evidence, a formal complaint leading to arrest, or statements from law enforcement indicating imminent action. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a rapid decision by Maine authorities to bring charges based on the existing complaint before the deadline, or an unexpected development such as a new corroborating statement or evidence release that prompts immediate action. Absent those, the current trajectory supports the near-certain pricing on no charges by August 31.