Graham Platner’s strong performance in Maine’s Democratic Senate primary on June 9 has solidified trader consensus against any pre-primary dropout. After Governor Janet Mills suspended her campaign in late April, Platner consolidated endorsements, grassroots fundraising, and polling leads as the presumptive nominee, reaching 72 percent of the primary vote. Despite scrutiny over past online comments, he repeatedly rejected withdrawal calls, backed by progressive allies and rural voter support. The market’s 97 percent probability for “No” reflects this entrenched position ahead of the general election matchup against incumbent Susan Collins. Late developments such as new controversies or institutional pressure to replace the nominee before the July filing deadline remain the primary variables that could still shift the outcome.