Ongoing strong El Niño conditions, which elevate vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, represent the dominant factor suppressing hurricane development and anchoring market-implied odds near the low-to-moderate range. As of mid-August, only two named tropical storms have formed with no hurricanes recorded, well below the 1991–2020 average pace. NOAA’s updated outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season amid slightly above-average sea-surface temperatures that offer limited offsetting potential. Remaining uncertainty centers on peak-September steering patterns and any model divergence in shear forecasts, with resolution hinging on whether additional systems reach the 74 mph threshold before November 30.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
4-6 46%
1-3 38%
0 9%
7+ 7%
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
0
9%
1-3
38%
4-6
32%
7+
26%
4-6 46%
1-3 38%
0 9%
7+ 7%
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
0
$100 Vol.
9%
1-3
$129 Vol.
38%
4-6
$335 Vol.
32%
7+
$125 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Ongoing strong El Niño conditions, which elevate vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, represent the dominant factor suppressing hurricane development and anchoring market-implied odds near the low-to-moderate range. As of mid-August, only two named tropical storms have formed with no hurricanes recorded, well below the 1991–2020 average pace. NOAA’s updated outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season amid slightly above-average sea-surface temperatures that offer limited offsetting potential. Remaining uncertainty centers on peak-September steering patterns and any model divergence in shear forecasts, with resolution hinging on whether additional systems reach the 74 mph threshold before November 30.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
ভলিউম
$688শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Ongoing strong El Niño conditions, which elevate vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, represent the dominant factor suppressing hurricane development and anchoring market-implied odds near the low-to-moderate range. As of mid-August, only two named tropical storms have formed with no hurricanes recorded, well below the 1991–2020 average pace. NOAA’s updated outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season amid slightly above-average sea-surface temperatures that offer limited offsetting potential. Remaining uncertainty centers on peak-September steering patterns and any model divergence in shear forecasts, with resolution hinging on whether additional systems reach the 74 mph threshold before November 30.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
ভলিউম
$688শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing strong El Niño conditions, which elevate vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, represent the dominant factor suppressing hurricane development and anchoring market-implied odds near the low-to-moderate range. As of mid-August, only two named tropical storms have formed with no hurricanes recorded, well below the 1991–2020 average pace. NOAA’s updated outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal activity overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season amid slightly above-average sea-surface temperatures that offer limited offsetting potential. Remaining uncertainty centers on peak-September steering patterns and any model divergence in shear forecasts, with resolution hinging on whether additional systems reach the 74 mph threshold before November 30.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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