The Miami Beach felony drug possession case from November 2025, involving a controlled substance later identified as cocaine, has been the central driver behind trader sentiment, as Doherty was accepted into Miami-Dade County’s pre-trial diversion program in March after the marijuana charge was dropped. This pathway for nonviolent first-time offenders typically avoids conviction and incarceration. The September 2026 Fort Lauderdale misdemeanor domestic battery arrest carries a maximum one-year county jail term but no prison exposure, with the victim uninjured and reports noting possible self-defense claims. Ongoing civil matters and a separate social media contract dispute add no criminal risk. With no trial dates imminent and historical patterns favoring diversion outcomes for similar influencer cases, markets reflect strong consensus around minimal or no prison time.