France’s ongoing parliamentary deadlock, marked by the latest prime minister’s resignation in early October 2026 after just days in office, has intensified calls for early presidential elections or Macron’s departure. Yet his second term runs until May 2027, and the constitution bars a consecutive third term, locking in the fixed election calendar. Macron has publicly committed to serving until the final day despite record-low approval and repeated government collapses since the 2024 snap legislative vote. No verified mechanisms or institutional moves have emerged to force an exit before year-end. Trader pricing on the “Macron out by December 31, 2026” outcome at roughly 4 percent reflects this structural timeline and the absence of immediate triggers capable of overriding the scheduled transition.