The brief remaining window through late 2026, combined with the low historical rate of large events, underpins the 94% market-implied probability of no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region. USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in 2026, with no M5+ events near central Los Angeles and isolated moderate quakes farther afield along the San Andreas and related faults. Long-term forecasts indicate roughly a 60% chance of an M6.7 or greater event over 30 years, implying an annualized risk well below 4% that drops sharply for the final months ahead. Elevated tectonic stress on segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, documented at multi-century highs, raises the long-term potential for rupture but does not alter near-term probabilities without precursors such as accelerating foreshocks. An unexpected mainshock triggered by slow-slip events or swarm escalation remains possible though statistically remote before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
7% সম্ভাবনা
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% সম্ভাবনা
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The brief remaining window through late 2026, combined with the low historical rate of large events, underpins the 94% market-implied probability of no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region. USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in 2026, with no M5+ events near central Los Angeles and isolated moderate quakes farther afield along the San Andreas and related faults. Long-term forecasts indicate roughly a 60% chance of an M6.7 or greater event over 30 years, implying an annualized risk well below 4% that drops sharply for the final months ahead. Elevated tectonic stress on segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, documented at multi-century highs, raises the long-term potential for rupture but does not alter near-term probabilities without precursors such as accelerating foreshocks. An unexpected mainshock triggered by slow-slip events or swarm escalation remains possible though statistically remote before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
ভলিউম
$16,533শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The brief remaining window through late 2026, combined with the low historical rate of large events, underpins the 94% market-implied probability of no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region. USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in 2026, with no M5+ events near central Los Angeles and isolated moderate quakes farther afield along the San Andreas and related faults. Long-term forecasts indicate roughly a 60% chance of an M6.7 or greater event over 30 years, implying an annualized risk well below 4% that drops sharply for the final months ahead. Elevated tectonic stress on segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, documented at multi-century highs, raises the long-term potential for rupture but does not alter near-term probabilities without precursors such as accelerating foreshocks. An unexpected mainshock triggered by slow-slip events or swarm escalation remains possible though statistically remote before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
ভলিউম
$16,533শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The brief remaining window through late 2026, combined with the low historical rate of large events, underpins the 94% market-implied probability of no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles region. USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in 2026, with no M5+ events near central Los Angeles and isolated moderate quakes farther afield along the San Andreas and related faults. Long-term forecasts indicate roughly a 60% chance of an M6.7 or greater event over 30 years, implying an annualized risk well below 4% that drops sharply for the final months ahead. Elevated tectonic stress on segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, documented at multi-century highs, raises the long-term potential for rupture but does not alter near-term probabilities without precursors such as accelerating foreshocks. An unexpected mainshock triggered by slow-slip events or swarm escalation remains possible though statistically remote before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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