NFL training camps and preseason Week 1 games are shaping early 2026 playoff probabilities, with quarterback health and roster depth emerging as primary drivers. Patrick Mahomes continues recovering from a prior knee injury and is expected to miss preseason action, while other notable absences include players on PUP or NFI lists across multiple teams. Offseason additions, scheme changes under new coordinators, and projected win totals from models like FPI highlight favorites such as the Rams, Eagles, and Bills, alongside defending champions like the Seahawks. Recent camp reports on rookie integration, contract extensions, and injury recoveries will influence implied probabilities as teams finalize 53-man rosters ahead of the regular season opener.