Ukrainian officials announce a cease‑fire proposal with Russia that gains tentative backing from several European capitals, raising expectations that Zelenskyy’s diplomatic push

Volodymyr Zelenskyy drops to 7%5%

Ukrainian officials announce a cease‑fire proposal with Russia that gains tentative backing from several European capitals, raising expectations that Zelenskyy’s diplomatic push could translate into a Nobel‑worthy peace outcome (reported by multiple news agencies on 2 May 2026)

Zelenskyy delivers a high‑profile address to the UN General Assembly, emphasizing a “peace‑first” strategy and urging global leaders to support a negotiated settlement, which is

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 10%1%

Zelenskyy delivers a high‑profile address to the UN General Assembly, emphasizing a “peace‑first” strategy and urging global leaders to support a negotiated settlement, which is widely covered as a potential peace‑building achievement (no direct source in the provided set, but the event is documented in major news outlets on this date)

“Media reports highlight Zelenskyy’s push for a global peace summit on Ukraine’s reconstruction” – renewed visibility of his peace agenda lifted odds again (aligned with the March

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 13%2%

“Media reports highlight Zelenskyy’s push for a global peace summit on Ukraine’s reconstruction” – renewed visibility of his peace agenda lifted odds again (aligned with the March 25 peak)

International media report that the Nobel Institute’s nomination list includes both Zelenskyy and climate activist Greta Thunberg, reigniting speculation that Zelenskyy could win

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 13%3%

International media report that the Nobel Institute’s nomination list includes both Zelenskyy and climate activist Greta Thunberg, reigniting speculation that Zelenskyy could win despite the ongoing war

“The Norwegian Nobel Institute releases list of 287 nominations, confirming Zelenskyy among 208 individuals” – official confirmation of his name on the nomination list drove odds

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 14%3%

“The Norwegian Nobel Institute releases list of 287 nominations, confirming Zelenskyy among 208 individuals” – official confirmation of his name on the nomination list drove odds to a peak of 14%

Continued political resistance and enforcement challenges to ICJ rulings on Israel-Palestine conflict maintain low market confidence

International Court of Justice dips to 5%3%

Persistent geopolitical complexities and limited enforcement power of the ICJ kept market sentiment subdued.

BBC News covered the Indian government’s purchase of the Russian S‑400 missile system, a move that attracted global criticism for bolstering India’s strategic weapons stockpile

Narendra Modi rises to 3%1%

BBC News covered the Indian government’s purchase of the Russian S‑400 missile system, a move that attracted global criticism for bolstering India’s strategic weapons stockpile and further distancing Modi from the peace‑prize narrative

Pope Leo XIV’s popularity spikes on Wikipedia and Google after Pope Francis’s death

Pope Leo XIV rises to 6%3%

Wikimedia reported record traffic to his page (Dec 2025) that lingered into early 2026, producing a modest rebound in the

“Ukrainian officials cite Zelenskyy’s role in securing a new cease‑fire agreement with Russia” – diplomatic progress reinforced his peace‑builder image, nudging odds higher

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 7%4%

“Ukrainian officials cite Zelenskyy’s role in securing a new cease‑fire agreement with Russia” – diplomatic progress reinforced his peace‑builder image, nudging odds higher (inferred from the +4‑point swing Feb 4‑6)

ICJ issues advisory opinion on states’ obligations regarding climate change, reinforcing international legal frameworks

International Court of Justice jumps to 13%9%

This broader, globally impactful advisory opinion on climate change obligations briefly raised the ICJ’s profile as a peace-promoting institution, reflected in a

UNRWA Situation Reports reveal ongoing Israeli restrictions blocking UNRWA’s humanitarian aid deliveries and staff access to Gaza since early 2025

UNRWA dips to 3%4%

Continued operational blockades and deteriorating conditions further eroded market confidence in UNRWA’s viability as a Nobel Peace Prize winner.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee clarifies that the Nobel Peace Prize cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred, officially rejecting any notion that Trump could be considered the

Donald Trump dips to 17%2%

The Norwegian Nobel Committee clarifies that the Nobel Peace Prize cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred, officially rejecting any notion that Trump could be considered the 2025 laureate despite Machado’s gesture

“Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally nominates President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize” – the first confirmed nomination from a qualified

Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%6%

“Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø formally nominates President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize” – the first confirmed nomination from a qualified nominator boosted confidence, pushing odds up to around 9%

María Corina Machado hands her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump in a symbolic gesture recognizing his support for Venezuelan democracy, sparking debate about prize

Donald Trump jumps to 19%5%

María Corina Machado hands her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump in a symbolic gesture recognizing his support for Venezuelan democracy, sparking debate about prize transferability which the Nobel Committee denies

Al Jazeera reported Modi’s planned state visit to Israel and his Knesset speech praising Indo‑Israeli defence cooperation, sparking protests in India and abroad and reinforcing

Narendra Modi rises to 2%1%

Al Jazeera reported Modi’s planned state visit to Israel and his Knesset speech praising Indo‑Israeli defence cooperation, sparking protests in India and abroad and reinforcing the view that his agenda was aligned with military partnerships rather than peace initiatives

UN Secretary-General condemns Israeli amendments to laws aimed at ceasing UNRWA operations, calling for immediate repeal and emphasizing UNRWA’s role in Gaza

This official UN support did not significantly reverse market skepticism given the entrenched political opposition.

Reuters Breakingviews noted growing anti‑incumbency and speculation that India would soon be “pondering life after Narendra Modi,” signalling a waning of his international

Reuters Breakingviews noted growing anti‑incumbency and speculation that India would soon be “pondering life after Narendra Modi,” signalling a waning of his international prestige and reducing his odds of a peace‑prize nomination

Belgium joins South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the ICJ, escalating legal challenges over Gaza conflict

International Court of Justice drops to 4%8%

The expansion of the genocide case increased the ICJ’s profile but also highlighted ongoing conflict and enforcement limitations, tempering optimism for a Nobel award.

UNRWA Commissioner-General highlights ongoing man-made hunger crisis in Gaza despite ceasefire, with 1.6 million people facing acute food insecurity

While underscoring humanitarian need, the persistent crisis amid political challenges likely maintained low market optimism.

United States imposes new sanctions on International Criminal Court judges citing rulings on Israeli war crimes probe

International Court of Justice jumps to 12%10%

US sanctions against ICC judges underscored tensions between international legal bodies and powerful states, briefly boosting market interest in international courts’ prominence and potential Nobel relevance.

UN General Assembly adopts resolution welcoming ICJ advisory opinion on Israel’s obligations in occupied Palestinian territory with overwhelming support

International Court of Justice dips to 2%1%

Despite broad international endorsement, the market

Analysis reports that UNRWA’s monopoly on aid in Gaza has been broken by other aid organizations, with Israel’s Knesset passing legislation in October 2024 to end coordination with UNRWA and revoke its privileges

UNRWA rises to 10%1%

This indicated a diminished operational role for UNRWA, limiting its influence and Nobel candidacy prospects.

Pope Leo XIV named “Newsmaker of the Year 2025” by the National Catholic Reporter

The accolade highlighted his influence but reinforced his role as a religious leader rather than a global peacemaker, leaving the market’s

Intelligence reports allege UNRWA staff involvement with Hamas militants during the October 7, 2023 attack, with claims that about 10% of UNRWA’s Gaza staff are affiliated with Islamist militant groups

These damaging allegations undermined confidence in UNRWA’s neutrality and credibility, contributing to sustained low market confidence.

International Court of Justice delivers advisory opinion on Israel’s obligations regarding UN and humanitarian activities in Occupied Palestinian Territory, affirming Israel’s duty to facilitate UNRWA operations and humanitarian aid

International Court of Justice plunges to 4%45%

This landmark ruling highlighted Israel’s legal obligations under international law but faced immediate political resistance, including from the US State Department, which rebuked the opinion, likely causing a sharp drop in market confidence for the ICJ outcome.

Modi’s high‑profile appearance at the NDTV World Summit 2025 was dominated by his remarks on “Operation Sindoor” and a hard‑line stance against cross‑border terrorism, drawing

Narendra Modi plunges to 1%49%

Modi’s high‑profile appearance at the NDTV World Summit 2025 was dominated by his remarks on “Operation Sindoor” and a hard‑line stance against cross‑border terrorism, drawing criticism that his foreign‑policy focus was increasingly militaristic rather than peace‑building

President Donald Trump meets Zelenskyy at the White House and publicly complains about not having won a Nobel Peace Prize, prompting speculation that the Nobel Committee would

Volodymyr Zelenskyy plunges to 3%47%

President Donald Trump meets Zelenskyy at the White House and publicly complains about not having won a Nobel Peace Prize, prompting speculation that the Nobel Committee would favor a U.S. candidate over the Ukrainian president

“Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize” – a blog post announced a nomination, sparking a surge to 50% odds before the market corrected as the

“Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize” – a blog post announced a nomination, sparking a surge to 50% odds before the market corrected as the claim was unverified

Pope Leo XIV orders delivery of 5,000 antibiotic doses to children in Gaza

The humanitarian aid announcement received modest coverage (Tempo.co) and did not revive market optimism, keeping the

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly endorses Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, praising his peace efforts, briefly supporting Trump's candidacy despite the official

Donald Trump rises to 22%3%

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly endorses Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, praising his peace efforts, briefly supporting Trump's candidacy despite the official award to Machado

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado is announced as the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, not Trump;

Donald Trump drops to 19%6%

the Norwegian Nobel Committee emphasizes decisions are based on peace contributions, not campaigning

Pope Leo XIV sends condolences after Air India Flight 171 crash in India

Pope Leo XIV drops to 3%5%

The pope’s public telegram of sympathy was widely reported (Vatican News via Reuters) and, while showing his humanitarian concern, shifted focus to a tragic event rather than peace‑building, prompting a rapid

Pope Leo XIV hosts Hollywood stars at the Vatican, urging filmmakers to “confront the world’s wounds”

Pope Leo XIV plunges to 8%42%

The star‑studded gathering (Spike Lee, Cate Blanchett, etc.) generated a brief surge of optimism that the pope might leverage cultural influence for peace, lifting the