Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez discusses freezing her eggs and potential 2028 run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

AOC's public sharing of her fertility treatment and openness about future political plans kept her in the media spotlight, maintaining her market price.

Pete Buttigieg headlines Michigan Democrats' Detroit election rally

Pete Buttigieg headlined a major Democratic rally in Detroit, reinforcing his national presence and 2028 presidential ambitions, though his market price remained low.

Pete Buttigieg emphasizes coalition-building in Michigan Democratic rally

Buttigieg's remarks on uniting Democrats across the spectrum at a Michigan rally highlighted his strategic approach for 2028, influencing his market price.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez clashes with AIPAC over Michigan Senate race endorsements

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

AOC publicly criticized AIPAC for its involvement in Democratic primaries, highlighting her progressive stance and energizing her base, which supported a price increase in her market outcome.

Pete Buttigieg to headline Michigan Democrats’ Detroit election rally

Pete Buttigieg was scheduled to headline a rally for Michigan Democrats, signaling active involvement in 2026 midterms and maintaining his profile as a 2028 presidential contender, supporting his market price.

Pete Buttigieg signals leaning toward 2028 presidential run

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg publicly indicated he is "more inclined than not" to run for president in 2028, which contributed to a slight increase in his market price.

Pete Buttigieg signals inclination to run for president in 2028

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg expressed he is 'more inclined than not' to run for president in 2028, boosting his market support.

Gavin Newsom's tax returns reveal annual income between $1.7M and $2M

The release of Gavin Newsom's tax returns showing high annual income amid ongoing investigations brought scrutiny but also highlighted his financial strength as he considers a 2028 presidential run.

Pete Buttigieg falsely accused in 'swatting' incident leading to temporary child separation

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

Pete Buttigieg and his husband were falsely accused in a swatting incident, resulting in temporary separation from their children; the allegation was later disproven, but it negatively impacted his market price.

Gavin Newsom releases four years of tax returns amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 12%3%

Governor Gavin Newsom disclosed extensive tax filings, increasing transparency and fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run, which affected his market price.

JD Vance and Usha Vance welcome baby boy, first child born to sitting VP in 156 years

JD Vance rises to 21%1%

The birth of JD Vance's child attracted public attention, humanizing the vice president and potentially boosting his likability and market support.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez considers 2028 presidential run and Senate bid

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%2%

Reports emerged that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is weighing a presidential run in 2028 and a Senate challenge, increasing her visibility and market price.

Gavin Newsom releases tax filings amid 2028 presidential speculation

Newsom's release of extensive tax filings provided transparency and fueled speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, affecting his market price.

Marco Rubio convenes countries on left-wing political violence

Marco Rubio jumps to 13%6%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio convened leaders from over 60 countries to address rising left-wing political violence, highlighting his active role in foreign policy and national security, which influenced his market standing.

Josh Shapiro begins 2026 re-election campaign with strong fundraising

Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%

Shapiro's campaign reported over $30 million on hand, positioning him strongly for re-election and potential 2028 presidential ambitions.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio leads diplomatic efforts amid global crises

Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%

Marco Rubio, as Secretary of State, engaged in high-profile diplomatic activities including talks on Venezuela and international security, enhancing his stature and market position as a presidential candidate.

Jon Ossoff campaigns aggressively for 2026 midterms, boosting 2028 prospects

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff intensified his campaign efforts for down-ballot Democrats in the 2026 midterms, signaling strong political momentum and increasing his market valuation as a 2028 presidential contender.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads New Hampshire poll for 2028 presidential race

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%3%

AOC's emergence as a frontrunner in a New Hampshire poll increased market confidence in her candidacy, reflected in a price rise during the analysis window.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff gain in New Hampshire presidential poll

A New Hampshire poll showed AOC and Jon Ossoff rising as potential 2028 presidential contenders, boosting their market prices.

Pete Buttigieg proposes major Supreme Court reforms including expansion

Pete Buttigieg renewed calls for Supreme Court reforms, including expansion and term limits, positioning himself as a progressive reformer and slightly raising his profile despite low polling.

AOC emerges as Democratic party ideological leader but uncertain 2028 prospects

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%2%

Following a New Hampshire poll showing AOC as a front-runner, she solidified her role as a party leader, boosting her market support despite uncertainty about her presidential viability.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez emerges as Democratic ideological leader after New Hampshire poll

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%2%

A New Hampshire poll showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a frontrunner for the 2028 presidential race, solidifying her status as a party ideological leader and boosting her market price.

Jon Ossoff's Senate reinvention and fundraising dominance highlighted

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Reports detailed Ossoff's strategic Senate reinvention and massive fundraising advantage, reinforcing his status as a top Democratic contender and supporting his market price increase.

Polling shows Jon Ossoff among favorites for 2028 Democratic nomination

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

New Emerson polling indicated Ossoff as a leading Democratic contender for 2028, supporting his rising market price and national recognition.

Marco Rubio announces additional sanctions targeting Cuban regime

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's announcement of new sanctions against Cuba reinforced his tough foreign policy stance, supporting his market position.

Donald Trump attacks Jon Ossoff as 'Democrat communist' during Georgia speech

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

President Trump's public attack on Jon Ossoff in Georgia heightened Ossoff's profile and energized his base, contributing to a rise in his market price as a potential 2028 candidate.

Jon Ossoff gains attention for sharp criticism of Trump and strong fundraising

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%3%

Ossoff's vocal opposition to Trump and his fundraising success enhanced his profile as a rising Democratic star and potential 2028 candidate, reflected in his market price increase.

Donald Trump mocks Jon Ossoff during Georgia speech

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

President Trump publicly attacked Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia, raising Ossoff's profile and energizing his base, which correlated with Ossoff's market price rising from 7% to 9%.

Marco Rubio leads international efforts against left-wing political terrorism

Rubio convened leaders from over 60 countries to address left-wing political terrorism, highlighting his role in national security and impacting his market position.

Marco Rubio attends Philippine diplomatic events amid global engagements

Marco Rubio rises to 14%1%

Marco Rubio's active diplomatic engagements, including meetings in the Philippines, increased his visibility and market price as a potential presidential candidate.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hints at possible 2028 presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%1%

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez suggested she has not ruled out a 2028 presidential bid while campaigning for progressive candidates, increasing speculation about her future ambitions and impacting her market price.

Jon Ossoff's 2028 presidential momentum grows amid strong fundraising

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Newsweek reported Jon Ossoff's growing momentum for a 2028 presidential bid, supported by his $20 million fundraising haul, which helped push his market price from 6% to 9%.

Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha welcome their fourth child

JD Vance rises to 20%1%

The birth of JD Vance's fourth child was a personal milestone that brought positive media attention and may have contributed to a modest increase in his market price during this timeframe.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez acknowledges possible 2028 presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

In July 2026, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly stated she has not ruled out a 2028 presidential bid, fueling speculation and increasing her market price as a potential Democratic contender.

Jon Ossoff's campaign fundraising and grassroots support continue to grow

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%1%

By mid-2026, Jon Ossoff's campaign demonstrated strong momentum with increasing fundraising and broad geographic support, reflected in a steady rise in his market price.

Jon Ossoff raises $20 million in second quarter of 2026 for reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff's strong fundraising haul and cash on hand bolstered his reelection prospects and increased his market support as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Jon Ossoff gains momentum with growing fundraising and campaign activity

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%1%

Ossoff's increasing fundraising success and active campaigning in Georgia enhanced his national profile and prospects for 2028, contributing to his market price rise during this period.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hints at 2028 presidential run during Michigan campaign swing

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez suggested she has not ruled out a 2028 presidential bid while campaigning in Michigan, contributing to her market price rising from 8% to 9%.

JD Vance welcomes fourth child, marking historic birth for sitting VP

JD Vance rises to 22%2%

JD Vance and his wife announced the birth of their fourth child, Alec Neel Vance, the first child born to a sitting vice president in over 150 years, a personal event that attracted media attention.

JD and Usha Vance welcome their fourth child, first born to sitting VP in 150 years

JD Vance rises to 21%1%

The birth of JD Vance's fourth child, Alec Neel Vance, received significant media attention, humanizing the candidate and positively influencing his market price.

JD Vance welcomes baby boy, reinforcing family values image

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

Vice President JD Vance announced the birth of his son, aligning with his advocacy for higher birth rates and family values, which positively influenced his market perception.

JD Vance and wife announce birth of fourth child

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

The birth of Vance's child, the first to a sitting vice president in over 150 years, increased his public profile and positively influenced his market price.

US Vice President JD Vance and his wife announce birth of fourth child

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

JD Vance and his wife announced the birth of their fourth child, marking a personal milestone that drew public attention and reinforced Vance's profile as a family-oriented candidate, influencing his market perception.

Vice President JD Vance and wife welcome their fourth child, Alec Neel Vance

JD Vance rises to 21%3%

The birth of JD Vance's fourth child brought positive media attention and humanized his public image, supporting a modest price increase in his market outcome.

JD Vance welcomes fourth child, highlighting personal stability during campaign

JD Vance's announcement of the birth of his fourth child in July 2026 added a personal dimension to his public image, supporting his steady market price around 20%.

JD Vance and wife welcome baby boy, first child born to sitting VP in 156 years

JD Vance rises to 22%2%

Vice President JD Vance announced the birth of his fourth child, a personal milestone that received media attention and may have influenced public perception of him during the period.

JD Vance becomes first sitting VP in 156 years to have a child while in office

JD Vance rises to 20%1%

The birth of Vance's fourth child attracted media attention and humanized his public image, contributing to a modest market boost.

JD Vance and Usha Vance welcome their fourth child, first born to sitting VP in 156 years

JD Vance rises to 22%2%

The birth of Vance's fourth child while in office was a historic milestone that increased his public profile and positively impacted his market price.

Jon Ossoff campaigns to voters outside metro Atlanta, boosting 2028 profile

Jon Ossoff rises to 8%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign events in Georgia, including outreach outside metro Atlanta, increased his visibility and momentum as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, reflected in his rising market price.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads in New Hampshire poll for 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 10%2%

AOC emerged as a frontrunner in a New Hampshire poll for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, boosting her market price and national profile.

Gavin Newsom and wife hire private attorney amid federal investigation

Gavin Newsom dips to 13%1%

Newsom's announcement of hiring a top litigator amid a Justice Department probe created uncertainty around his campaign, causing a decline in his market price.

Marco Rubio convenes international leaders to address left-wing political violence

Rubio's leadership in convening global leaders on political violence highlighted his national security role, supporting his market position.

JD Vance accuses Israeli government of campaign against Iran diplomacy

JD Vance publicly accused members of Israel’s government of trying to sway US opinion against Iran diplomacy, highlighting his diplomatic role and affecting his market perception.

Marco Rubio delivers speech on resurgence of political terrorism

Marco Rubio rises to 13%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted a ministerial meeting addressing the rise of left-wing political violence, raising his profile and contributing to a price increase from 9% to 13%.

Marco Rubio convenes conference targeting left-wing political violence

Marco Rubio rises to 17%3%

Rubio's leadership in convening a ministerial focused on political violence, emphasizing left-wing activism, raised his national profile and influenced market confidence in his candidacy.

Marco Rubio calls for dismantling International Criminal Court

Marco Rubio rises to 13%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio launched a campaign to dismantle the ICC, framing it as a threat to US sovereignty, which raised his profile among conservatives and affected his market price.

Marco Rubio convenes international leaders on left-wing political violence

Rubio hosted a summit addressing left-wing terrorism, highlighting his focus on national security and law enforcement, which bolstered his political profile.

Jon Ossoff surpasses $80 million in fundraising for 2026 Senate race

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%1%

Ossoff's record-breaking fundraising and polling lead solidified his frontrunner status in the Georgia Senate race.

Jon Ossoff raises $20M in Q2, widening cash edge over Republican challenger

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Jon Ossoff's impressive $20 million fundraising haul in the second quarter of 2026 significantly increased his campaign resources, reinforcing his lead in polls and boosting his market price.

Senator Jon Ossoff intensifies reelection campaign with attacks on Trump

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Jon Ossoff's vocal criticism of President Trump during his reelection campaign raised his national profile and boosted his market odds for the 2028 presidential race.

Jon Ossoff openly embraces role as leading Trump critic in 2026 midterms

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Ossoff's vocal opposition to Trump and his messaging energized Democratic voters and increased his profile as a 2028 presidential contender, positively affecting his market price.

Josh Shapiro reports over $30 million cash on hand for 2026 re-election campaign

Shapiro's record fundraising demonstrated strong campaign viability and boosted market confidence in his electoral prospects.

Josh Shapiro raises $12 million for 2026 Pennsylvania governor reelection campaign

Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro reported raising $12 million in the second quarter of 2026, bolstering his campaign war chest and enhancing his prospects for reelection and potential 2028 presidential ambitions.

Vice President JD Vance uses Joe Rogan podcast to express controversial views

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

Vance's remarks on the Joe Rogan Experience, including conspiracy theories about Israel, attracted widespread attention and controversy, influencing his market perception.

Marco Rubio criticizes International Criminal Court and expands sanctions

Marco Rubio rises to 13%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly condemned the ICC and expanded sanctions against its officials, raising his profile as a hardline Republican leader and contributing to his market price increase.

Marco Rubio unveils plan to dismantle International Criminal Court

Marco Rubio dips to 12%3%

Rubio announced a campaign to dismantle the ICC, asserting it threatened US sovereignty, which raised his profile among conservative voters and affected his market price.

Jon Ossoff's fundraising surpasses $80 million, leading polls in Georgia Senate race

Jon Ossoff jumps to 10%6%

Jon Ossoff's massive fundraising haul and strong polling numbers in his 2026 Senate reelection campaign boosted his national profile and market odds for 2028 presidential prospects.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez discusses progressive foreign policy views at Munich Security Conference

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 8%1%

Ocasio-Cortez's remarks on foreign policy at the Munich Security Conference highlighted her progressive stance and growing influence within the Democratic Party, contributing to her market price increase.

Marco Rubio speaks at ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in the Philippines

Marco Rubio's active diplomacy at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting showcased his leadership in international affairs, positively influencing his market position.

Marco Rubio launches campaign to dismantle International Criminal Court

Marco Rubio dips to 12%3%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio unveiled a campaign to dismantle the ICC, framing it as a threat to US sovereignty, which raised his profile on international legal and diplomatic issues.

Marco Rubio vows to dismantle International Criminal Court

Marco Rubio rises to 14%1%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly vowed to dismantle the ICC, reflecting a hardline foreign policy stance that affected his market support.

Jon Ossoff raises over $80 million for 2026 reelection campaign in Georgia

Jon Ossoff jumps to 10%7%

Ossoff's massive fundraising haul and strong polling boosted market confidence in his political future, reflected in a price increase during the analysis window.

Marco Rubio unveils plan to dismantle International Criminal Court

Marco Rubio rises to 12%2%

Rubio's announcement of a campaign against the ICC highlighted his active foreign policy role, boosting his profile and market price during mid-2026.

Marco Rubio announces campaign to dismantle International Criminal Court

Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared a campaign to dismantle the ICC, emphasizing his hardline foreign policy stance and raising his profile as a 2028 presidential contender, contributing to his market price increase.

Pete Buttigieg focuses on 2026 midterm elections, keeps 2028 presidential options open

Buttigieg's public statements about focusing on 2026 while leaving the door open for 2028 maintained his market presence, though with limited price movement.

Pete Buttigieg faces false allegations leading to temporary separation from children

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

Pete Buttigieg and his husband were falsely accused in a swatting incident, leading to temporary separation from their children, negatively impacting his public image and market price.

Pete Buttigieg campaigns with Democratic candidates in Iowa

Pete Buttigieg drops to 2%7%

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg campaigned for Democratic candidates in Iowa, signaling his active engagement in the 2026 midterms and positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run.

New poll shows JD Vance leading potential 2028 candidates by double digits

JD Vance rises to 20%1%

A national poll showed Vice President JD Vance ahead of other Republican and Democratic contenders, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting his market price near 20%.

Marco Rubio announces deportation of pardoned Minnesota man

Marco Rubio rises to 14%1%

As U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio announced the deportation of a pardoned immigrant, showcasing his active role in immigration enforcement and foreign policy, which contributed to a rise in his market price.

Gavin Newsom campaigns in neighboring states ahead of 2026 midterms

Newsom's campaign tour to rally Democratic volunteers and fundraise in key states increased his national visibility and market price as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Kamala Harris signals consideration of 2028 presidential run at National Action Network Convention

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Kamala Harris publicly acknowledged thinking about a 2028 presidential bid in April 2026, which contributed to a modest price increase from 3% to 5%.

Governor Gavin Newsom campaigns around the country ahead of midterms

California Governor Gavin Newsom embarked on a multi-state campaign tour to support Democratic candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms, raising his national profile and solidifying his position as a potential 2028 presidential contender.

Vice President JD Vance campaigns in Milwaukee to support Trump administration policies

Vance's campaign activities in battleground states like Wisconsin increased his visibility and market price as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Josh Shapiro criticized for court packing stance on MSNBC's Morning Joe

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%2%

Shapiro's call for radical Supreme Court reform, interpreted as court packing, drew criticism and may have negatively impacted his market support.

Governor Gavin Newsom kicks off summer tour campaigning for Democrats

Gavin Newsom dips to 12%1%

Gavin Newsom's summer tour to campaign for Democratic candidates across California and the country was a strategic effort to boost party prospects, but it did not reverse his declining market price trend.

Jon Ossoff raises $12 million in quarter while deciding on 2026 Senate run

Jon Ossoff jumps to 9%6%

Jon Ossoff's strong fundraising in mid-2026 demonstrated his political strength and viability, leading to a price rise from 3% to 9% over the analysis window.

Vice President JD Vance visits Milwaukee to promote Trump administration efforts

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance visited Milwaukee to highlight the Trump administration's work combating fraud and to raise funds for Republican candidates, increasing his national profile and market support.

Pete Buttigieg endorses Jocelyn Benson in Michigan gubernatorial primary

Buttigieg's endorsement of a key Democratic candidate in Michigan signaled his active role in national politics and boosted his profile as a 2028 contender, influencing his market price.

Vice President JD Vance visits Milwaukee to promote Trump administration policies

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

Vance's visit to Milwaukee to highlight anti-fraud efforts and fundraise for Republicans increased his visibility and market support.

Vice President JD Vance celebrates Fourth of July with patriotic address

JD Vance rises to 20%1%

JD Vance's public patriotic speech on July 4, 2026, reinforced his national profile and appeal among conservative voters, contributing to a modest increase in his market price during this period.

Marco Rubio meets Pope Leo XIV amid tensions over Iran war

Marco Rubio dips to 12%3%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Pope Leo XIV to discuss disagreements including the Iran war, highlighting his diplomatic role and international engagement.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorses Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan Democratic Senate primary

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 7%1%

Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed in a key Michigan Senate primary marked her first contested primary endorsement, boosting her profile and market price as a 2028 presidential contender.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorses Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan Democratic Senate primary

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 8%1%

Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement of Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in a key Michigan Senate primary marked her first competitive Senate endorsement in 2026, signaling her active engagement in national politics and boosting her profile among progressives.

Jon Ossoff leads in Georgia Senate race with strong Fox News poll showing

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

A Fox News poll showed Jon Ossoff holding a double-digit lead in his 2026 Senate race, boosting his market price as a rising Democratic figure and potential 2028 contender.

Marco Rubio convenes international summit on left-wing political violence

Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio led a global meeting of over 60 countries to address left-wing political violence, enhancing his profile and contributing to a modest price increase.

JD Vance publicly acknowledged as 2028 Democratic frontrunner by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

JD Vance rises to 20%1%

JD Vance was singled out by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the expected Democratic frontrunner for 2028, a rare moment of recognition that likely contributed to a slight increase in his market price.

Fox News poll: Ossoff leads Collins 56‑43 in Georgia Senate race

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

A Fox News poll released July 1 gave Ossoff a 56 %‑43 % lead over Republican challenger Mike Collins in the 2026 Georgia Senate race. The strong showing boosted his market price from 5 % to 7 % within two days.

Zogby poll shows JD Vance leading Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom in 2028 matchups

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

A Zogby Analytics poll released in early July showed JD Vance leading Democratic contenders Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups. This poll reinforced Vance's position as a frontrunner, supporting his market price stability and slight increase.

Jon Ossoff firmly denies 2028 presidential run amid reelection campaign

Senator Jon Ossoff repeatedly stated he is not running for president in 2028, focusing on his Senate race, which kept his market price low at around 9%.

Jon Ossoff Flatly Denies 2028 Presidential Ambitions Amid Growing Online Support

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff doubled down on his statements that he has zero interest in running for president in 2028, calling the speculation a distraction from his Georgia Senate reelection campaign.

Jon Ossoff raises $14 million in Q1 2026, leads Senate race polls

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%3%

Senator Jon Ossoff's strong fundraising and leading position in polls for his 2026 Senate race increased his visibility and market price as a potential 2028 presidential contender.

Jon Ossoff Firmly Rules Out 2028 Presidential Run

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Despite growing online enthusiasm and comparisons to Barack Obama, Senator Jon Ossoff issued a firm statement denying any interest in a 2028 presidential run, calling the chatter a distraction from his Senate reelection campaign.

Governor Gavin Newsom signs balanced state budget for 2026-27

Gavin Newsom dips to 12%3%

Newsom signed a balanced budget for California, emphasizing fiscal strength and investments, but the event did not reverse his market price decline amid political challenges.

AOC warns rising cost of living threatens Trump’s midterms

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 7%2%

RawStory quoted AOC saying rising cost‑of‑living was a political liability for Trump. The comment highlighted her focus on economic issues and coincided with a dip in her market price from 9 % (Jun 16 2026) to 7 % (Jul 4 2026).

Gavin Newsom and California Legislature reach $351.7-billion budget deal

Gavin Newsom drops to 12%6%

Governor Gavin Newsom's announcement of a large state budget deal aimed at balancing California's finances was a significant policy event, but mixed reactions contributed to a decline in his market price during this period.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio Announces Israel-Lebanon Framework Deal

Marco Rubio dips to 11%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a framework agreement signed by Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors, hailing it as a first step toward regional peace.

Governor Gavin Newsom insists on state workers returning to office July 1

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%2%

Newsom's firm stance on returning state workers to office despite union opposition highlighted his leadership but also sparked controversy, impacting his campaign momentum negatively.

False report leads to Pete Buttigieg's brief separation from children

A false anonymous report led to a police investigation that temporarily separated Pete Buttigieg from his children, drawing public sympathy but not significantly affecting his market price.

Pete Buttigieg's children temporarily removed due to false CPS report

A politically motivated false report led to Michigan Children's Protective Services temporarily removing Pete Buttigieg's children from his home, causing personal distress and negative media attention, which likely caused a drop in his market price.

Pete Buttigieg briefly separated from children after false police report

Buttigieg was briefly separated from his children after a false police report, a personal scandal that pushed his market price from 2 % on Jun 22 2026 to 2 % on Jun 27 2026, confirming a continued downward trend from a high of 9 % in mid‑2025.

Gavin Newsom proposes national wealth tax after failing to block California billionaire tax

Gavin Newsom rises to 15%1%

After failing to block a state billionaire tax, Newsom proposed a national wealth tax and an AI equity fund, positioning himself as a progressive economic reformer, which influenced his market price despite ongoing investigations.

Marco Rubio Announces Israel-Lebanon Framework Agreement as Step Toward Peace

Marco Rubio dips to 11%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a framework agreement signed by Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors, boosting his foreign policy credentials.

Governor Gavin Newsom Confirms Return-to-Office Order is Final Despite Union Protests

Gavin Newsom dips to 12%3%

Governor Gavin Newsom insisted that his controversial return-to-office order for California state workers would take effect on July 1, drawing heavy criticism from labor unions and contributing to a decline in his national appeal.

Gavin Newsom calls for national billionaires tax amid state-level battles

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%1%

Newsom proposed a national wealth tax and AI equity fund, positioning himself as a progressive leader but also facing criticism, which influenced his market price downward.

Pete Buttigieg falsely accused in child protective services report

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

An anonymous caller falsely reported that Pete Buttigieg's children were in danger, leading to their temporary removal and a police investigation. The report was quickly determined to be false, but the incident caused personal distress and negative publicity, reflected in a drop in Buttigieg's market price.

Marco Rubio Brokers Historic Israel-Lebanon Framework Agreement

Marco Rubio rises to 16%1%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a U.S.-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon, marking a major diplomatic breakthrough and boosting his foreign policy credentials.

Jon Ossoff announces $37 million infrastructure funding for Georgia

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff secured significant federal funding for infrastructure projects in Georgia, enhancing his political standing and campaign momentum ahead of his re-election and potential presidential ambitions.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio says no Ukraine‑Russia deal reached at Alaska summit

Marco Rubio rises to 16%4%

Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Russia and the United States had not reached an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, reinforcing his high‑profile diplomatic role and lifting his market price from 12 % to 16 % by early July.

Marco Rubio warns Gulf allies about Iranian tolls on Strait of Hormuz

During the conclusion of his Gulf tour, Rubio warned that Iranian tolls on the Strait of Hormuz could spread regionally, reinforcing his strong stance on security and contributing to sustained market confidence.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduces AI Data Center Moratorium Act

AOC's legislative activity on emerging tech issues highlighted her progressive agenda and leadership role, influencing market perceptions.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez introduces AI Data Center Moratorium Act

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

AOC introduced the AI Data Center Moratorium Act in the House, a high‑profile legislative move that coincided with a modest decline in her market price from 9 % on Jun 9 2026 to 5 % on Jun 27 2026.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduces Artificial Intelligence Data Center Moratorium Act

Ocasio-Cortez's legislative activity on AI regulation highlighted her progressive agenda, supporting her stable market price.

Tucker Carlson quits the GOP, says he’s “out”

Tucker Carlson plunges to 2%48%

Carlson announced on a podcast that he was quitting the Republican Party and would no longer support GOP candidates. The announcement was widely covered and triggered a dramatic collapse of his market price from 50 % to 2 % over the next week.

Vance leads U.S.–Iran talks, secures inspector access

JD Vance jumps to 21%6%

Vice‑President JD Vance led high‑level talks with Iran in Switzerland, announcing that Iran would allow nuclear inspectors to return. The breakthrough raised Vance’s profile as a possible 2028 contender and coincided with a jump in his market price from 15 % to 21 % the next day.

Vice President JD Vance Announces Major Progress in Switzerland Peace Talks with Iran

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

Vice President JD Vance led direct negotiations with Iran in Switzerland, securing an agreement to allow international nuclear inspections to resume, which elevated his standing as a diplomatic dealmaker.

JD Vance leads US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland amid high stakes

JD Vance rises to 19%4%

JD Vance's role in leading sensitive peace negotiations with Iran placed him in a critical foreign policy spotlight, influencing market perceptions of his leadership and presidential prospects.

Marco Rubio dispatched to Middle East to seek Gulf support amid Iran talks

Marco Rubio rises to 15%1%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain to rally Gulf Cooperation Council support for a tentative Iran agreement, boosting his profile and market price.

Marco Rubio begins Middle East diplomatic tour addressing Iran and Gulf security

Marco Rubio jumps to 17%8%

Marco Rubio's diplomatic visits to UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain to discuss Iran and the Strait of Hormuz raised his profile and market price from 9% to a peak of 17% in early June, reflecting increased confidence in his foreign policy credentials.

Marco Rubio visits Middle East to address Iran memorandum of understanding

Marco Rubio dips to 11%4%

Rubio's diplomatic visit to the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain to discuss Iran and Hormuz priorities underscored his foreign policy leadership, impacting his presidential market standing.

Marco Rubio embarks on Middle East diplomatic mission amid Iran tensions

Marco Rubio rises to 16%1%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain to discuss regional security and Iran-related issues, raising his profile and positively influencing his market price as a key foreign policy figure.

JD Vance says Iran will allow UN nuclear inspectors after Swiss talks

JD Vance jumps to 21%6%

Vice President Vance announced that Iran had agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back into the country after a “very, very good” round of talks in Switzerland. The breakthrough boosted Vance’s perceived competence on foreign policy and pushed his market price up from 15 % to 21 % by early July.

Jon Ossoff gains attention as potential 2028 Democratic contender despite denials

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies and growing popularity in Georgia increased speculation about a 2028 presidential run, reflected in a modest rise in his market price despite his public disinterest.

Gavin Newsom attends dedication of Barack Obama Presidential Center, signals 2028 presidential consideration

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%2%

California Governor Gavin Newsom's attendance at the Obama Center dedication and statements about considering a 2028 presidential run increased his visibility and influenced his market price downward slightly due to mixed signals.

Media highlights Jon Ossoff's potential contingent on 2026 Senate race success

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%

Media analysis emphasized Jon Ossoff's potential as a 2028 presidential candidate contingent on winning his 2026 Senate race, supporting his market price rise to 6%.

Georgia Conservative Radio Host Shelley Wynter Endorses Jon Ossoff for Reelection

Prominent conservative radio host Shelley Wynter endorsed Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, boosting Ossoff's cross-party appeal in a highly competitive swing state.

Joy Behar encourages JD Vance to run for president during The View interview

JD Vance rises to 21%4%

Joy Behar publicly urged JD Vance to run for president following their interview, which positively influenced market sentiment and contributed to a price rise to 21% by June 22.

Investigation into Gavin Newsom raises concerns over 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom dips to 16%1%

An ongoing probe into California Governor Gavin Newsom's administration raised questions about his presidential ambitions, contributing to a slight decline in his market price from 17% to 16%.

Joy Behar Reveals She Encouraged JD Vance to Run for President in 2028

JD Vance rises to 20%3%

Following an animated interview on 'The View', liberal host Joy Behar revealed she encouraged Vice President JD Vance to make a 2028 White House run, boosting his media profile and market price.

Jon Ossoff solidifies front-runner status amid Republican primary runoff in Georgia

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

As Republicans faced a fractured primary runoff, Jon Ossoff's strong fundraising and campaign infrastructure positioned him as a front-runner for reelection and boosted his 2028 presidential viability, reflected in a price increase.

Jon Ossoff gains attention as potential 2028 presidential contender amid Senate re-election campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%2%

Despite focusing on his 2026 Senate re-election in Georgia, Jon Ossoff was increasingly mentioned as a possible 2028 presidential candidate, boosting his profile and market perception.

Mike Collins Wins Georgia GOP Senate Runoff to Face Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

Trump-endorsed Representative Mike Collins won the Republican primary runoff, setting up a highly anticipated general election matchup with Jon Ossoff, who is viewed as a key 2028 Democratic prospect.

Jon Ossoff's campaign surges with strong fundraising after GOP nominee emerges

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%

Following the Republican primary win of Mike Collins in Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign raised over $1 million in 24 hours, signaling strong support and boosting his market price as he prepared for a tough reelection battle.

Trump-Endorsed Mike Collins Wins Georgia Runoff to Face Jon Ossoff in November

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

Georgia Republicans selected Representative Mike Collins to challenge incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff in a critical midterm race seen as a key test for Ossoff's potential 2028 presidential viability.

JD Vance Appears on 'The View' to Promote Memoir Amid FCC Equal Time Scrutiny

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

Vice President JD Vance made a highly rated debut appearance on ABC's 'The View' to promote his book 'Communion', drawing 3.3 million viewers and addressing tense policy questions.

JD Vance appears on ABC's 'The View' to discuss new book and administration goals

JD Vance rises to 16%1%

JD Vance's first appearance on the popular daytime talk show 'The View' to discuss his new book and political agenda increased his visibility and engagement with a broader audience, impacting his market price positively.

Death‑hoax about Pete Buttigieg confirmed false

The Daily Caller debunked a bogus death hoax about Buttigieg that circulated in June 2026, reinforcing his low market probability (2 % on Jul 4 2026). The hoax’s resolution caused a brief dip but the price remained near its endpoint.

Gavin Newsom Reveals He and His Wife Are Under DOJ Investigation

Gavin Newsom rises to 16%1%

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the Department of Justice is investigating him and his wife, claiming the probe is a politically motivated attack by President Trump to damage his potential 2028 presidential run.

Gavin Newsom Announces He and His Wife Are Under Federal Investigation

Gavin Newsom dips to 12%4%

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the Department of Justice is investigating him and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, which he claimed was a politically motivated attack on his 2028 ambitions.

California Governor Gavin Newsom investigated by US Department of Justice amid 2028 run speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 12%4%

Newsom's DOJ investigation and political challenges created uncertainty around his candidacy, contributing to a decline in his market price during the analysis period.

Gavin Newsom reveals DOJ investigation into him and his wife amid 2028 speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%1%

Governor Newsom announced that he and his wife are under investigation by the Department of Justice, which contributed to a decline in his market price due to increased political uncertainty.

California Governor Gavin Newsom announces DOJ investigation

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%2%

Governor Gavin Newsom revealed he is under investigation by the US Department of Justice, a development that introduced uncertainty around his political future and contributed to fluctuations in his market price.

California Governor Gavin Newsom reveals DOJ investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 12%3%

Newsom's announcement of a Department of Justice investigation in mid-June 2026 raised political challenges and uncertainty about his 2028 presidential run, contributing to a price decline from 15% to 12%.

Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%2%

California Governor Gavin Newsom revealed he and his wife are under federal investigation, which negatively impacted his market price as it raised concerns about his presidential prospects.

Gavin Newsom Accuses Justice Department of Politically Motivated Investigation

Gavin Newsom rises to 16%2%

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that he and his wife are under federal investigation, claiming the Trump administration is targeting him because he is considering a 2028 presidential run.

Gavin Newsom announces DOJ investigation amid political tensions with Trump

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%2%

California Governor Gavin Newsom revealed that he and his wife were under investigation by the Justice Department, which he attributed to political targeting by President Trump. This development negatively affected his market price amid concerns over his political future.

California Governor Gavin Newsom says US Department of Justice investigating him

Gavin Newsom drops to 12%5%

Newsom's announcement of a DOJ investigation into him amid speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions created political uncertainty, contributing to a decline in his market price.

Newsom races to sink California billionaire tax before June deadline

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%3%

Governor Newsom launched a last‑ditch campaign to sink a proposed California billionaire tax before the June 25 deadline. The move was viewed as a sign of his willingness to fight powerful interests, but the market saw his presidential odds slip from 18 % to 16 % on June 12 and down to 15 % by June 26.

JD Vance Says He Will Discuss 2028 Presidential Run After Midterm Elections

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

Vice President JD Vance stated in a CBS Sunday Morning interview that he and his wife will discuss whether he should seek the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after the 2026 midterms.

JD Vance announces plan to discuss 2028 run after midterm elections

JD Vance rises to 20%4%

Vice President JD Vance stated he will discuss a 2028 presidential run with his wife after the 2026 midterms, signaling a delay in decision-making but maintaining candidacy speculation. This contributed to a rebound in his market price to 20%.

JD Vance signals decision on 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms

JD Vance stated in an interview that he and his wife would discuss a 2028 presidential run after the midterm elections, fueling speculation and affecting his market price positively.

Marco Rubio and Gavin Newsom share suite at World Cup amid 2028 speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 15%1%

Marco Rubio's attendance at the World Cup and meeting with Paraguayan President Santiago Peña, alongside California Governor Gavin Newsom, highlighted their rising profiles and ongoing 2028 presidential speculation.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains undecided on 2028 presidential run

Ocasio-Cortez publicly stated she is undecided about running for president in 2028, maintaining her political flexibility but limiting market enthusiasm.

JD Vance to appear on 'The View' amid FCC drama and White House criticism

Vice President JD Vance announced a high-profile interview on the liberal talk show 'The View,' a surprising move amid ongoing FCC investigations and criticism of the show's hosts. This media event caused a brief uptick in his market price.

JD Vance discusses faith and personal challenges in interview

JD Vance's interview revealing his personal struggles and faith provided insight into his character, influencing public perception and market price modestly.

JD Vance breaks silence on 2028 plans, to decide after midterms

JD Vance rises to 16%1%

In a CBS interview, JD Vance stated he would discuss a potential 2028 presidential campaign with his wife after the 2026 midterm elections, showing cautious consideration and maintaining his market position.

Pentagon seizes control of California National Guard amid anti-ICE protests

Gavin Newsom dips to 16%3%

The federal takeover of the National Guard to suppress protests drew Newsom's attention and criticism, impacting his political narrative and market perception.

Jon Ossoff gains traction as 2028 Democratic contender amid strong Senate campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%

Prediction markets warmed to Jon Ossoff for 2028, lifting his price from 4% to 6% as his Senate reelection campaign gained momentum and he increased his national profile.

Prediction markets price Jon Ossoff as rising 2028 contender despite denials

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%3%

Despite Jon Ossoff's public denials of a 2028 presidential run, prediction markets increased his price from 3% to 6% as his 2026 Senate campaign gained momentum and national profile.

Gavin Newsom announces $46 million funding to address Tijuana River pollution

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%2%

Governor Gavin Newsom's announcement of significant environmental funding was overshadowed by ongoing controversies, contributing to a decline in his market price.

JD Vance announces upcoming memoir focusing on faith

Vance's announcement of a new memoir about his faith aimed to broaden his appeal and reshape his public image, potentially affecting his market price.

Jon Ossoff Viral Speeches Spark 2028 Presidential Buzz

Senator Jon Ossoff's re-election campaign kickoff speech went viral online, leading to widespread speculation and prediction market activity positioning him as a strong 2028 Democratic contender.

JD Vance criticized for comments on UK teen murder and immigration

JD Vance drops to 23%5%

JD Vance faced criticism from UK officials for comments linking immigration to a teen's murder, impacting his public image and contributing to a decline in his market price.

Marco Rubio's diplomatic efforts and statements on Middle East peace talks

Marco Rubio rises to 17%3%

Marco Rubio's active diplomatic engagement and public statements on Middle East peace negotiations increased his visibility and support among foreign policy-focused voters, leading to a price rise in early June.

Marco Rubio defends US foreign policy amid Iran talks and military actions

Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly defended the administration's Iran policy and military actions, raising his profile and contributing to a rise in his market price.

Marco Rubio testifies on Capitol Hill optimistic about Iran nuclear talks

Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before the Senate expressing optimism about resuming nuclear talks with Iran despite ongoing conflict. His active diplomatic role and public visibility contributed to an increase in his market price.

Marco Rubio testifies on Iran war and US foreign policy

Marco Rubio rises to 15%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the administration's Iran policy and military actions, raising his profile and market price from 13% to 15%.

Marco Rubio Testifies Before Congress on Iran War and Budget Cuts

Marco Rubio rises to 16%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, defending the administration's foreign policy and budget requests, which further elevated his national profile.

California holds primary for governor, shaping Newsom's political future

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%1%

The California gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026, created uncertainty around Gavin Newsom's political future, contributing to a decline in his market price as the race to succeed him intensified.

House passes Geothermal Cost‑Recovery Authority Act sponsored by AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

The House passed the Geothermal Cost‑Recovery Authority Act, a bipartisan bill sponsored by Ocasio‑Cortez, raising her market price from 9 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 5 % on 2026‑06‑06 as the bill attracted criticism from conservative media.

California primary election results advance Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, Newsom ineligible

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%3%

The California top-two primary election was held, with Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton advancing. Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom was ineligible for re-election due to term limits, which contributed to a slight decline in his market price from 17% to 14%.

Secretary Rubio testifies on Iran sanctions, signals tough U.S. stance

Marco Rubio rises to 14%4%

Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Iran‑related sanctions, emphasizing a hard‑line stance. The appearance lifted his odds, moving the market price from 10 % on 2026‑05‑19 to 14 % on 2026‑06‑04.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio testifies on Capitol Hill about State Department budget

Marco Rubio rises to 11%2%

Marco Rubio's testimony on the State Department's budget request showcased his active role in foreign policy, reinforcing his position as a key Republican figure and contributing to his market price rise during this period.

Ossoff starts 2026 with $25 million cash on hand

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%3%

NBC reported that Ossoff began 2026 with a $25 million cash war‑chest, a boost that lifted his market price from 4 % (Jun 16 2026) to 7 % (Jul 4 2026).

Jon Ossoff centers reelection campaign on rooting out corruption

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%2%

Ossoff's focus on anti-corruption resonated with voters amid opponents' scandals, bolstering his campaign strength and market price.

Jon Ossoff centers 2026 campaign on anti-corruption message amid opponent scandals

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff emphasized anti-corruption in his 2026 reelection campaign as his opponents faced corruption accusations, reinforcing his campaign strength and market price.

Jon Ossoff Delivers Fiery Anti-Corruption Speech at Atlanta Campaign Rally

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a powerful, viral speech in Atlanta criticizing Donald Trump, which significantly boosted his national profile and fueled 2028 speculation.

Jon Ossoff Delivers Viral Campaign Speech in Atlanta

Jon Ossoff jumps to 9%5%

Senator Jon Ossoff delivered a powerful 30-minute campaign speech at a rally in Atlanta that went viral on social media, drawing comparisons to Barack Obama and fueling intense speculation about a 2028 presidential run.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez embarks on national tour fueling 2028 presidential speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%1%

Ocasio-Cortez's national tour and increased media presence fueled speculation about a 2028 presidential run, though her market price remained low, reflecting mixed market confidence.

Vice President JD Vance delivers commencement address at U.S. Air Force Academy

JD Vance dips to 15%4%

Vance's role as commencement speaker showcased his leadership and public presence, positively influencing his market perception as a presidential hopeful.

Fox News calls AOC a 'chaos candidate' for 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

A Fox News segment discussed AOC’s nationwide tour and the pundit label of her as a potential “chaos candidate” for 2028, causing her market price to dip from 9 % to 5 % as investors reassessed her electability.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rallies support for Democratic candidates on national tour

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez actively campaigned for Democratic candidates during a national tour, signaling her growing influence and potential 2028 presidential ambitions, though her market price declined slightly.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez undertakes national tour and fundraising efforts

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez conducted a national tour and reported significant fundraising, maintaining her market presence though with limited price gains, ending near 6%.

Rubio beats Vance in head‑to‑head poll, market odds jump

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

A new head‑to‑head poll released May 28 showed Rubio ahead of JD Vance (42 % vs. 36 %). The surprise surge lifted Rubio’s market price from 11 % to 14 % the following day and later to a peak of 17 % on June 6.

JD Vance delivers commencement address at U.S. Air Force Academy

JD Vance's keynote speech at the Air Force Academy highlighted his leadership and military engagement, reinforcing his stature and maintaining his market price around 18-19%.

Jon Ossoff reports $12 million raised for 2026 reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff announced raising $12 million for his 2026 reelection campaign in Georgia, boosting his profile as a strong Democratic contender and increasing his market price.

Marco Rubio visits India to repair and strengthen diplomatic ties

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Marco Rubio's high-profile visit to India, including meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and cultural engagements, aimed to stabilize US-India relations, boosting his market standing amid foreign policy focus.

Vice President JD Vance expands national security team amid foreign conflicts

JD Vance bolstered his foreign policy operation during ongoing international conflicts, enhancing his profile as Vice President and influencing his market price slightly downward amid political challenges.

Marco Rubio visits India, emphasizing US-India strategic partnership

Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%

Marco Rubio's diplomatic visit to India highlighted his role as Secretary of State and boosted his profile as a presidential candidate, contributing to a price increase in his market outcome.

Marco Rubio announces significant progress toward Iran nuclear deal

Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the U.S. made significant progress toward an interim deal with Iran, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear material disposal. This diplomatic development enhanced Rubio's stature and market price as a serious presidential contender.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez takes steps toward 2028 presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 8%2%

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez increased her national profile by campaigning for other candidates and signaling potential presidential ambitions, which contributed to a gradual increase in her market price during this period.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Takes New Steps Toward Potential 2028 White House Bid

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez traveled to Montana to campaign for a congressional candidate and attended meetings with Democratic Party powerbrokers, signaling active preparation for a potential 2028 run.

Marco Rubio meets Indian officials to strengthen U.S.-India relations

Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%

Marco Rubio's visit to India included meetings with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and discussions on trade and bilateral ties. Although no major deals were signed, the visit was seen as a diplomatic effort to repair relations, positively impacting Rubio's market price.

Marco Rubio visits India, discusses US-India strategic partnership and Iran negotiations

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%6%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's diplomatic trip to India, including talks with Prime Minister Modi and discussions on Iran, raised his profile and contributed to a market price increase from 9% to 15% in early May.

Federal arrest in $23 million homeless services fraud in Los Angeles draws criticism of Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom dips to 16%2%

Federal authorities arrested a suspect in a $23 million homeless services fraud scheme in Los Angeles, leading to sharp criticism of Governor Gavin Newsom for oversight failures. This scandal negatively impacted Newsom's market price.

Marco Rubio visits India to strengthen US-India relations and attends Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Marco Rubio's diplomatic visit to India and participation in the Quad meeting underscored his foreign policy leadership, boosting his market price from 11% to 14% as he gained prominence as a 2028 presidential contender.

Rubio and Vance emerge as leading contenders in Republican 2028 succession race

Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%

Analysis highlighted the intensifying contest between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to succeed Donald Trump, with Vance maintaining a lead but Rubio gaining ground through diplomatic and policy roles. This dynamic was reflected in market price movements favoring Rubio and some volatility for Vance.

JD Vance faces political isolation and considers abandoning 2028 run

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Reports on May 23, 2026, indicated Vice President JD Vance was increasingly isolated after Tulsi Gabbard's exit and was contemplating dropping out of the 2028 presidential race, pressuring his market price downward to 18%.

AOC says she may consider a White House bid in 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

A Hill interview where AOC said she was keeping her options open for a 2028 run caused a modest dip in her market price from 9 % to 5 % by the end of May as investors reassessed her candidacy.

Jon Ossoff's message resonates with GOP voters amid 2028 speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff's speeches criticizing the wealthy elite and corruption have gained traction even among GOP voters, boosting his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Kamala Harris purchases Malibu mansion, signaling personal and political shift

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Kamala Harris quietly bought an $8.15 million mansion in Malibu, indicating a significant personal life change that market participants interpreted as a sign of her preparing for a future political campaign, supporting a price rise.

Kamala Harris considers 2028 presidential bid amid mixed support

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly indicated she is thinking about a 2028 presidential run, which contributed to a price increase from 3% to 5%, despite some former allies expressing preference for fresh faces.

JD Vance announces fourth child on social media

JD Vance dips to 19%2%

JD Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, a personal milestone that may positively influence public perception and market confidence in his candidacy.

JD Vance denies running for president in 2028 despite speculation

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

JD Vance publicly stated he is not running for president in 2028, countering market speculation and possibly contributing to a slight decline or stabilization in his market price as uncertainty about his candidacy persisted.

Thomas Massie gains slight market support

Thomas Massie rises to 3%2%

Thomas Massie’s price rose modestly from 1% to 3% in early 2026, possibly due to increased political activity or media mentions.

Josh Shapiro leads early polls for 2026 Pennsylvania governor race

Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%

Strong polling numbers for Shapiro solidified his frontrunner status and market confidence in his political future.

Vice President JD Vance cancels Denver event amid political speculation

JD Vance dips to 15%4%

JD Vance canceled a scheduled Denver visit without explanation, fueling speculation about his presidential ambitions and causing a decline in his market price from 19% to 15%.

JD Vance announced as commencement speaker at 2026 USAFA graduation

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

JD Vance was named the commencement speaker for the U.S. Air Force Academy's 2026 graduation, raising his national profile and briefly boosting his market price.

JD Vance denies plans to run for 2028 presidential election

Vance publicly stated he is not running for president and pushed back on speculation about a 2028 campaign, clarifying his focus on vice presidential duties.

Vance Briefs Members of the Media on Foreign Policy and National Security

Vance's media briefing highlighted his expanding foreign policy role, reinforcing his credentials for a national leadership position.

Kamala Harris reaches peak polling support amid renewed campaign efforts

Kamala Harris rises to 6%2%

Kamala Harris's campaign activities and public appearances led to a peak in her polling numbers, reflected in a price increase in the market.

Jon Ossoff intensifies 2026 Senate campaign in Georgia, raising significant funds

Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%

Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign for re-election gained momentum with strong fundraising and increased visibility, leading to a rise in his market price as a potential 2028 presidential contender.

JD Vance denies running for president in 2028

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Vice President JD Vance publicly stated he is not running for president and pushed back on speculation about a 2028 campaign, causing a decline in his market price as uncertainty increased.

Jon Ossoff wins Democratic primary for 2026 Georgia Senate race

Jon Ossoff jumps to 10%7%

Jon Ossoff secured the Democratic nomination for the 2026 Georgia Senate race, solidifying his position for re-election and increasing his market price as a 2028 presidential prospect.

JD Vance briefs media and hosts fraud task force meeting at White House

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance's active role in leading a fraud task force and hosting state attorneys general at the White House increased his visibility and credibility, causing his market price to rise from 19% to 22% around early May before stabilizing.

Pete Buttigieg endorses candidates in key 2026 races

Buttigieg's endorsements in competitive races increased his influence within the Democratic Party and supported his 2028 prospects.

Pete Buttigieg endorses Montana ballot measure limiting corporate money in elections

Buttigieg's public endorsement of a Montana ballot measure demonstrated his active political involvement and appeal to progressive voters, influencing his presidential prospects.

Marco Rubio publicly endorses JD Vance for 2028 GOP nomination

Marco Rubio rises to 15%3%

Marco Rubio stated in an NBC News interview that he would be the first to support Vice President JD Vance if Vance runs for president in 2028, signaling party unity and boosting Rubio's profile. This endorsement coincided with Rubio's odds rising in the market.

Josh Shapiro’s campaign stalls after New Jersey primary loss

Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%

Shapiro’s unexpected primary defeat reduced his perceived viability, causing his price to fall from 7% to 3% as the market reassessed his chances.

Pete Buttigieg Leads Hypothetical 2028 Democratic Presidential Field in New Poll

An Emerson College poll showed Pete Buttigieg leading a crowded field of potential 2028 Democratic candidates with 18% support, boosting his standing in the market.

Marco Rubio visits China despite sanctions, marking diplomatic breakthrough

Marco Rubio rises to 13%1%

Rubio's visit to Beijing despite Chinese sanctions was seen as a diplomatic success, boosting his stature and market price as a leading Republican contender.

New Poll Shows Marco Rubio and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leading 2028 Primary Fields

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

A new AtlasIntel poll showed Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading their respective potential 2028 primary fields, boosting their market profiles.

Trump proposes JD Vance and Marco Rubio 2028 presidential ticket

JD Vance rises to 21%3%

Donald Trump publicly suggested a presidential ticket featuring JD Vance and Marco Rubio, boosting their profiles and market prices due to association with Trump’s influence.

Poll shows Marco Rubio leading JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination

Marco Rubio rises to 15%3%

A national poll revealed Marco Rubio surging ahead of JD Vance as the preferred Republican candidate for 2028, reflecting shifting party support and boosting Rubio's market price while pressuring Vance's position.

Ron DeSantis price increases following special session announcement

Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%

Ron DeSantis's move to call a special legislative session to address redistricting and other policy issues increased his visibility and political influence.

JD Vance adds Trump ally Cliff Sims as national security adviser

JD Vance expanded his national security team by appointing Cliff Sims, a close ally of Donald Trump, signaling a strengthening of his foreign policy credentials. This move likely supported his campaign positioning and contributed to market confidence.

AOC and Marco Rubio Lead New 2028 Presidential Primary Poll

A new AtlasIntel poll showed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading the potential 2028 Democratic field, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a commanding lead on the Republican side.

Ron DeSantis gains momentum after policy speech on immigration enforcement

Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%

Ron DeSantis delivered a high‑profile speech outlining a new immigration enforcement plan, which resonated with his base and lifted his market price from 2% to 4% over the following days.

JD Vance appoints Cliff Sims as national security adviser amid global crises

JD Vance rises to 20%1%

JD Vance expanded his national security team by appointing Cliff Sims, a Trump ally, signaling strengthened foreign policy credentials and boosting market confidence in his presidential prospects.

Trump names JD Vance and Marco Rubio 'dream team' for 2028 election

JD Vance rises to 21%3%

President Trump publicly endorsed JD Vance and Marco Rubio as his preferred candidates for the 2028 presidential race, causing a notable increase in their market prices.

Democratic National Committee boosts Kamala Harris for 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 6%1%

The DNC's support for Kamala Harris, including staff shifts to her campaign, increased her visibility and perceived viability as a 2028 candidate, positively affecting her market price.

Kamala Harris receives Democratic endorsements and boosts for 2028

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

In May 2026, Kamala Harris gained endorsements and support from Democratic leaders and the DNC, which helped increase her visibility and market price as a potential 2028 candidate.

Marco Rubio's increased activity fuels speculation of 2028 run

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Marco Rubio's political activities and public statements in early 2026 increased speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, reflected in rising market prices.

Jon Ossoff gains momentum after Georgia Senate race win

Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%

Ossoff’s victory in the Georgia Senate race boosted his national profile, raising his market price from 3% to 4% as he emerged as a rising Democratic star.

Josh Shapiro becomes highest-paid governor in the U.S. starting 2026

Shapiro's salary increase and growing political stature contributed to his market price remaining stable despite challenges.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises in Democratic primary polls, sparking speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%1%

A poll placed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez atop the Democratic primary field for the first time, increasing her visibility though her market price slightly declined overall during the period.

Kamala Harris signals consideration of 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 6%3%

Kamala Harris publicly confirmed she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, raising her profile and market price from 3% to 6% during April and May.

JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey game at Winter Olympics with Jake Paul

JD Vance's public appearance at the Winter Olympics alongside influencer Jake Paul increased his visibility and connected him with younger audiences, maintaining his market presence.

AOC says she’s still weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%4%

AOC told The Guardian she was not ruling out a 2028 presidential run, but the interview generated mixed reactions and an apparent dip in enthusiasm among moderate voters, causing her market price to fall from 9 % on 2025‑08‑11 to 5 % on 2026‑06‑04.

Marco Rubio says he will not enter 2028 race if JD Vance runs

Marco Rubio rises to 15%1%

Rubio stated he would not enter the 2028 presidential race if JD Vance were to run, reinforcing the idea that Vance is the likely Republican nominee. This reduced speculation about Rubio as a 2028 candidate.

JD Vance travels to Iowa to support representative Zach Nunn ahead of 2028 primary

Vance's visit to early primary state Iowa to support representative Zach Nunn was seen as laying groundwork for a presidential run, fueling speculation that he was actively preparing for the 2028 nomination.

Marco Rubio announces new visa restrictions to combat cyberscams and sextortion

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Marco Rubio's announcement of new visa restrictions in May 2026 showcased his active role in US foreign policy and security, contributing to a price rise from 10% to 15% around early May.

Marco Rubio serves as Secretary of State and leads diplomatic efforts

Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%

Marco Rubio, as Secretary of State, engaged in high-profile diplomatic activities and policy leadership, raising his national profile and contributing to his market price gains.

JD Vance sees price increase following high-profile March for Life speech

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

JD Vance's continued advocacy for pro-family policies and his high-profile role at the March for Life event bolstered his standing among conservative voters.

Secretary Rubio testifies on Iran war before Senate panel

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Iran conflict, drawing media attention and raising his market price from 11 % to 14 % that week.

Marco Rubio Surges in 2028 Successor Polls and White House Briefings

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's prominent role in foreign policy and a series of strong poll numbers, including an AtlasIntel poll showing him leading JD Vance, drove a sharp increase in his market price.

Marco Rubio releases campaign-style video fueling 2028 presidential buzz

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a hopeful vision video that went viral, increasing speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions and raising his market price.

Marco Rubio visits Rome to improve US relations with Italy and Vatican

Marco Rubio rises to 15%2%

Rubio's diplomatic visit to Rome aimed at thawing relations with the Italian government and the Vatican, showcasing his active role in foreign policy and boosting his presidential prospects.

Josh Shapiro begins 2026 re-election campaign with strong fundraising

Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro announced his 2026 re-election campaign with over $30 million in the bank, positioning himself as a strong potential 2028 presidential contender, though his market price slightly declined.

Marco Rubio becomes surprise front-runner in 2028 presidential betting market

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Marco Rubio's increased involvement in foreign policy and national security, including high-profile diplomatic efforts, boosted his standing in prediction markets, causing his price to rise and briefly overtake JD Vance.

Kamala Harris campaigns in Las Vegas, criticizing Trump over Iran war

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Kamala Harris held a public event in Las Vegas where she criticized Donald Trump for the ongoing war in Iran, reinforcing her active political presence and positioning herself as a vocal critic of Trump-era policies. This likely boosted her market price by increasing her visibility and appeal to Democratic voters.

Ron DeSantis leaves office in 2027, leaves door open for 2028 run

Ron DeSantis rises to 3%1%

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced he will leave office in January 2027 due to term limits but did not rule out a future presidential run in 2028, keeping his candidacy possibility alive despite low market support.

Lin-Manuel Miranda hosts virtual fundraiser for Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

A high-profile virtual fundraising event hosted by Lin-Manuel Miranda boosted Jon Ossoff's visibility and fundraising efforts, contributing to a positive market response.

Marco Rubio gains support with positive White House press briefing

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Marco Rubio's role filling in at the White House press briefing and his positive remarks in early May 2026 enhanced his public profile and contributed to a market price increase.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio Meets Pope Leo XIV to Discuss Iran War

Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Pope Leo XIV to discuss disagreements over the Iran war, highlighting his prominent foreign policy role and boosting his profile as a key 2028 contender.

Marco Rubio’s price rises amid Winter Olympics and speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Marco Rubio’s price increased from 11% to 15% in early May, likely influenced by his role in the US delegation to the Winter Olympics alongside JD Vance and growing speculation about his presidential ambitions.

Marco Rubio meets Pope Leo XIV to discuss Iran war and Latin America

Rubio's diplomatic engagement with the Pope in May 2026 highlighted his foreign policy credentials, potentially enhancing his stature and market price as a presidential candidate.

Marco Rubio Releases Viral Campaign-Style Video Sparking 2028 Speculation

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a polished, campaign-style video outlining his optimistic vision for America, which was widely interpreted by commentators as a potential pitch for a 2028 presidential run.

Marco Rubio gains recognition as a leading Republican contender

Marco Rubio rises to 14%4%

Marco Rubio's price rose notably in early May, reflecting increased market confidence in his potential as a Republican candidate. Public and party strategist comments positioned Rubio as a strong contender, boosting his market standing.

Marco Rubio sparks 2028 presidential speculation with viral campaign-style video

Marco Rubio jumps to 16%9%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted a polished video outlining his vision for America, which was widely shared and praised, boosting his market price from 7% to 16%.

Marco Rubio visits Vatican amid rising 2028 presidential buzz

Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%

Marco Rubio's visit to the Vatican was seen as a strategic move to bolster his international credentials and presidential prospects, positively impacting his market price.

Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child

JD Vance rises to 20%1%

The announcement of Usha Vance's pregnancy was positively received, humanizing JD Vance and possibly contributing to a slight increase in his market price due to favorable public sentiment.

JD Vance campaigns in Iowa, boosting Republican support

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

Vice President JD Vance visited Iowa to support a vulnerable Republican congressman, energizing the GOP base and sparking speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, which led to a price increase from 19% to 22%.

Vice President JD Vance campaigns in Iowa, boosting Republican prospects

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance made a significant campaign appearance in Iowa, taking shots at Democrats and energizing Republican supporters, which likely contributed to a price increase from 19% to 22% around early May.

Marco Rubio's public briefing and diplomatic activities fuel 2028 presidential speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a White House briefing and increased his public profile through diplomatic engagements, including a Vatican visit. This boosted speculation about his 2028 presidential run, raising his market price from 11% to 15% in early May.

Kamala Harris endorses Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for reelection

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Kamala Harris publicly endorsed Karen Bass for LA mayor, signaling her continued political influence and potential presidential ambitions, which contributed to a rise in her market price.

Marco Rubio's White House briefing video sparks 2028 presidential buzz

Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio shared a campaign-style video from a White House briefing that went viral, increasing speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions and boosting his market position.

Rubio meets Pope Leo XIV, fuels 2028 presidential buzz

Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%

A Fox News video of Rubio’s brief meeting with Pope Leo XIV, aired on May 5, generated a viral clip that revived his 2028 speculation, lifting his price from 12 % on March 27 to 14 % on May 30.

JD Vance Makes First Vice Presidential Trip to Iowa to Boost Midterm Candidates

JD Vance dips to 20%2%

Vice President JD Vance made his first trip to the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa, a move widely interpreted as laying the groundwork for a 2028 presidential run.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefs media on foreign policy and global issues

Marco Rubio jumps to 13%6%

Marco Rubio, as Secretary of State, provided updates on key foreign policy issues, enhancing his national profile and contributing to his increased market price as a 2028 presidential contender.

Marco Rubio sparks 2028 presidential buzz with White House briefing

Marco Rubio jumps to 14%7%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's optimistic vision for America during a White House briefing generated speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run, boosting his market price significantly.

Marco Rubio briefs media as Secretary of State, signaling rising profile

Marco Rubio rises to 12%1%

Marco Rubio held a press briefing as Secretary of State, reinforcing his visibility and influence in foreign policy, contributing to a gradual increase in his market price during May.

Vice President JD Vance makes Iowa debut campaigning for GOP House member Zach Nunn

Vance's first campaign stop in Iowa signaled serious intent for a 2028 presidential run, boosting his profile in a critical Republican state.

Vance travels to Iowa to support Zach Nunn, fueling 2028 presidential run speculation

Vance's visit to early primary state Iowa signaled he was laying groundwork for a presidential run, boosting his visibility among key voters.

JD Vance warmly received in Iowa amid 2028 presidential speculation

JD Vance rises to 21%2%

Vice President JD Vance's visit to Iowa was met with optimism from Republicans curious about his potential as a 2028 presidential contender, briefly boosting his market price.

Marco Rubio Briefs White House Press, Sparking Viral 2028 Speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 15%3%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio filled in at the White House press briefing, delivering an eloquent and optimistic vision that went viral on social media and fueled intense speculation about a 2028 presidential run.

Marco Rubio Fills In at White House Press Briefing, Sparking 2028 Buzz

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio filled in for Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, delivering a hopeful vision for America that went viral and fueled speculation about his presidential prospects.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Refuses to Rule Out 2028 Presidential Run

Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declined to rule out a potential second run for the presidency in 2028, delivering what appeared to be a campaign pitch when asked about his post-governorship plans.

Kamala Harris endorses Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayoral race

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Kamala Harris publicly endorsed incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for reelection, signaling her political influence in California and possibly shaping local political dynamics ahead of the 2028 presidential race.

Marco Rubio to meet Pope Leo amid tensions with Trump

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Marco Rubio's scheduled meeting with Pope Leo in early May 2026, following Trump's public criticism of the pontiff, highlighted Rubio's diplomatic role and helped boost his market standing as a presidential contender.

Marco Rubio plans Vatican visit amid rising tensions between Trump and Pope

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a visit to the Vatican to discuss issues including the Iran war, signaling his growing diplomatic profile and influence. This contributed to a rise in Rubio's market price as he gained stature as a potential presidential contender.

Kamala Harris declines to run for California governor, fueling 2028 speculation

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris announced she would not run for California governor, a decision that disappointed some Democrats and fueled speculation about her 2028 presidential ambitions, impacting her market price.

Kamala Harris decides not to run for California governor, fueling 2028 speculation

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Kamala Harris announced she would not run for California governor in 2026, which some interpreted as a move to prepare for a 2028 presidential bid, modestly increasing her market price.

Marco Rubio proposes 2028 presidential ticket with JD Vance

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Marco Rubio publicly suggested a presidential formula pairing himself with JD Vance, boosting both candidates' market prices due to perceived strategic alliance.

Kamala Harris endorses Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for reelection

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Harris's endorsement of Karen Bass for LA mayor demonstrated her ongoing political influence and engagement, supporting a modest increase in her market price.

Marco Rubio’s market price rises amid increased political activity

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Marco Rubio’s market price increased from 11% to 14%, likely reflecting growing political engagement and endorsements, including his support for JD Vance’s potential presidential bid.

Marco Rubio testifies before Senate on Iran policy and foreign affairs budget

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, defending the Trump administration's Iran policy and budget requests. This high-profile appearance increased Rubio's visibility and market price.

JD Vance leads early 2028 Republican primary polls

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

A national poll showed Vice President JD Vance leading the 2028 Republican primary field with 37% support, temporarily boosting his market price.

JD Vance meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán ahead of elections

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance's meeting with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was seen as a strategic move to bolster his foreign policy credentials and appeal to conservative voters, contributing to a brief price peak in early May.

Ron DeSantis’ poll numbers dip after Florida tax controversy

Ron DeSantis dips to 4%4%

A controversy over new Florida tax legislation hurt DeSantis’s standing, dropping his price from 8% to 4% as voters expressed concern over economic policy.

JD Vance chairs White House task force to eliminate fraud

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance was named chairman of the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, highlighting his role in the administration and boosting his market standing.

Marco Rubio’s campaign-style video sparks 2028 presidential run speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Marco Rubio released a campaign-style video that went viral on social media, sparking speculation about his 2028 presidential run. The positive public reaction and endorsements from influencers helped boost his market price from 11% to 15%.

JD Vance and Jake Paul attend US women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance's public appearance with influencer Jake Paul at a US women's hockey game during the Winter Olympics drew media attention, reinforcing his public profile and appeal. This event coincided with a price increase for Vance from 19% to 22%.

Marco Rubio appointed interim National Security Advisor and continues diplomatic efforts

Marco Rubio rises to 9%2%

Rubio took on the role of interim National Security Advisor and engaged in significant diplomatic activities, raising his profile and market price as a 2028 contender.

Kamala Harris price increases

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Kamala Harris's market price saw a slight increase, potentially reflecting renewed interest or developments in her political standing as the 2028 cycle approaches.

JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey games at Winter Olympics with family and Jake Paul

JD Vance rises to 22%3%

JD Vance's attendance at U.S. women's hockey games at the Winter Olympics, alongside his family and influencer Jake Paul, increased his public profile and engagement with popular culture, contributing to a brief price increase in his market odds.

Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha Vance announce fourth child is on the way

JD Vance rises to 22%4%

The Vances publicly shared that they are expecting a fourth child, a personal milestone that generated positive media coverage and reinforced JD Vance’s family‑focused image, pushing his market price sharply higher.

U.S. delegation led by JD Vance and Marco Rubio to attend 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony

Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%

The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance will lead an American delegation, joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to the opening ceremony of the Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics, boosting Rubio’s visibility ahead of the market’s rise in early May.

Josh Shapiro proposes new system to rein in utility corporate profits

Josh Shapiro dips to 3%4%

Shapiro's active policy engagement on utility rates and corporate profits highlighted his governance credentials, supporting his market position as a potential 2028 candidate.

Pete Buttigieg delivers lecture at Earlham College

Pete Buttigieg delivered a lecture at Earlham College discussing leadership and innovation, maintaining his public presence and political relevance ahead of 2028.

Pete Buttigieg speaks at Earlham College Presidential Lecture Series

Buttigieg's public speaking engagements and continued political outreach efforts maintained his profile despite not running for office, contributing to minor price fluctuations.

Marco Rubio's State Department adopts explicitly Christian messaging

Marco Rubio rises to 12%2%

Reports on April 29, 2026, highlighted Rubio's rebranding of the State Department with Christian symbolism and messaging, signaling a shift in his political identity that may appeal to conservative voters, supporting his market rise to 12%.

Democrats express lukewarm enthusiasm for Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential bid

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Reports emerged that major Democratic donors and party leaders showed limited enthusiasm for backing Kamala Harris in 2028, reflecting skepticism about her appeal to swing voters. This news likely contributed to a modest increase in her market price as it highlighted her ongoing relevance in the race despite challenges.

Marco Rubio's profile soars to 35% in CPAC straw poll amid Iran and Venezuela operations

Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%

Rubio's increased visibility from military operations and foreign policy roles boosted his polling position and market interest.

Pete Buttigieg participates in town hall at Carleton College discussing political experience

Buttigieg's engagement in educational and political forums helped maintain his public profile and market relevance.

Pete Buttigieg delivers Kenner Lecture at Lehigh University

Buttigieg's continued public engagements and thought leadership helped maintain his national profile for 2028.

Pete Buttigieg participates in conversation on leadership and innovation at Carleton College

Buttigieg's April 2026 event at Carleton College showcased his political experience and vision, maintaining his profile as a 2028 contender.

Pete Buttigieg engages in public talks and town halls to advance pro-democracy movement

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg held public talks and town halls across the country to promote democracy and support Democrats, increasing his visibility and market price.

JD Vance leads US delegation in tough Iran war negotiations

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

Vice President JD Vance took a prominent role leading US talks with Iran in Islamabad, a challenging diplomatic effort given his previous opposition to the war. This high-profile role briefly boosted his visibility and market price, reflecting increased perceived leadership capability.

Pete Buttigieg speaks at Carleton College on leadership and innovation

Buttigieg's continued public engagements and focus on pro-democracy efforts maintained his visibility as a 2028 contender, supporting his market price.

Marco Rubio defends US policy amid Iran war and gains political profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 16%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio actively defended US actions in the Iran conflict and appeared in high-profile hearings, boosting his political stature and market price from 11% to 16%.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains media attention after Fox News interview

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Marco Rubio's public visibility increased following a Fox News interview where he discussed security issues, contributing to a rise in his market price as a potential 2028 candidate.

JD Vance and Marco Rubio lead U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony

Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%

JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended the opening ceremony of the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics as part of the U.S. delegation, increasing their public visibility and positively impacting their market prices, especially Rubio's which rose from 9% to 14%.

Harvard/Harris Poll Shows Kamala Harris Leading 2028 Democratic Field