The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in consolidated cases from Cook County and Connecticut—directly asking whether the Second and Fourteenth Amendments protect AR-15-style semiautomatic rifles—has become the dominant factor shaping trader views. Arguments are set for the fall 2026 term before a 6-3 conservative majority that has repeatedly broadened Second Amendment protections since Bruen. Recent lower-court developments, including a July 3rd Circuit ruling striking down New Jersey’s ban, add momentum to challengers while highlighting inconsistent appellate precedents. With no decision expected until 2027, the near-even odds reflect uncertainty over the Court’s precise scope, historical-tradition analysis, and any limiting language that could preserve narrower restrictions.