Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to "No" for the Services Down Parlay, driven by the March 31, 2026, deadline expiring without all required conditions met: no simultaneous AWS "disrupted" severity event on its Health Dashboard, Critical (red) Discord incident, and resolved Critical Cloudflare incident. While AWS experienced a thermal-event outage in early May and Discord reported API errors on May 8—both post-deadline and non-qualifying—neither provider nor Cloudflare logged qualifying pre-deadline disruptions across the board, underscoring the rarity of correlated failures in independent cloud infrastructures. Realistic upset risks remain slim, limited to retroactive severity reclassifications or oracle disputes, with resolution imminent upon confirmation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$14,339 Vol.
$14,339 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$14,339 Vol.
$14,339 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to "No" for the Services Down Parlay, driven by the March 31, 2026, deadline expiring without all required conditions met: no simultaneous AWS "disrupted" severity event on its Health Dashboard, Critical (red) Discord incident, and resolved Critical Cloudflare incident. While AWS experienced a thermal-event outage in early May and Discord reported API errors on May 8—both post-deadline and non-qualifying—neither provider nor Cloudflare logged qualifying pre-deadline disruptions across the board, underscoring the rarity of correlated failures in independent cloud infrastructures. Realistic upset risks remain slim, limited to retroactive severity reclassifications or oracle disputes, with resolution imminent upon confirmation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$14,339শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to "No" for the Services Down Parlay, driven by the March 31, 2026, deadline expiring without all required conditions met: no simultaneous AWS "disrupted" severity event on its Health Dashboard, Critical (red) Discord incident, and resolved Critical Cloudflare incident. While AWS experienced a thermal-event outage in early May and Discord reported API errors on May 8—both post-deadline and non-qualifying—neither provider nor Cloudflare logged qualifying pre-deadline disruptions across the board, underscoring the rarity of correlated failures in independent cloud infrastructures. Realistic upset risks remain slim, limited to retroactive severity reclassifications or oracle disputes, with resolution imminent upon confirmation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
ভলিউম
$14,339শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to "No" for the Services Down Parlay, driven by the March 31, 2026, deadline expiring without all required conditions met: no simultaneous AWS "disrupted" severity event on its Health Dashboard, Critical (red) Discord incident, and resolved Critical Cloudflare incident. While AWS experienced a thermal-event outage in early May and Discord reported API errors on May 8—both post-deadline and non-qualifying—neither provider nor Cloudflare logged qualifying pre-deadline disruptions across the board, underscoring the rarity of correlated failures in independent cloud infrastructures. Realistic upset risks remain slim, limited to retroactive severity reclassifications or oracle disputes, with resolution imminent upon confirmation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা