**The criminal fraud case against the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) in U.S. v. Southern Poverty Law Center, Inc. (M.D. Ala., 2:26-cr-00139) remains in its early stages, supporting traders’ strong consensus that a guilty finding is unlikely before the end of 2026.** The DOJ secured an 11-count indictment in April 2026 (superseded in June) charging wire fraud, false statements to a federally insured bank, and conspiracy to commit concealment money laundering. Prosecutors allege the SPLC used donor funds and fictitious accounts to pay informants embedded in extremist groups between 2014 and 2023. The SPLC has pleaded not guilty, moved to dismiss on vindictive-prosecution grounds, and denied the claims as politically motivated. On August 7, 2026, the court denied the dismissal motion, finding insufficient evidence of constitutional impropriety, and a trial date was set for October. As of mid-October 2026, the case is ongoing with no conviction. Complex federal fraud prosecutions with multiple counts and contested discovery typically involve extended pretrial litigation, possible plea negotiations, or delays that extend well beyond a single calendar year. The SPLC’s institutional resources and ongoing parallel civil matters further reduce the near-term probability of a final guilty verdict or plea that would resolve the market in 2026.