Traders assign a 90.5% implied probability that sports event contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms will avoid formal classification as gambling subject to the 90% loss cap under Section 165(d). The primary driver remains the IRS's continued silence on tax treatment as of October 2026, with no revenue rulings, notices, or guidance issued on whether these contracts qualify as wagering transactions versus capital assets or Section 1256 instruments. Ongoing state-federal litigation over sports contracts has not produced IRS action, and platforms continue operating under frameworks that permit full loss netting rather than the restrictions applied to traditional sportsbooks following the 2025 legislation. This regulatory vacuum supports the current consensus that formal reclassification is unlikely before the April 2027 resolution date.