**Traders assign a 70% probability to no U.S. Supreme Court vacancy in 2026** because the court's oldest members—Clarence Thomas (78) and Samuel Alito (76)—have made no public statements signaling retirement, and recent actions contradict immediate departure. Alito’s hiring of a full slate of clerks for the October Term 2026-2027 term indicates he intends to serve through at least the coming year. Other justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor (both 71), show no signs of stepping down, while younger members face no age-related pressure. Although speculation has circulated about strategic retirements under the current administration, none has materialized, and historical patterns show justices often remain past typical retirement ages absent health or political catalysts. Midterm timing adds uncertainty around Senate dynamics, but absent confirmed announcements or health developments, the market reflects the absence of concrete triggers for a 2026 opening.