**No Supreme Court vacancy appears likely in 2026, consistent with the 79.5% implied probability traders assign to that outcome.** The court's two oldest members—Clarence Thomas, age 78, and Samuel Alito, age 76—have issued no retirement announcements or signals of departure this year, and both previously indicated they intend to serve through at least the end of 2026. In early August, Alito directly addressed speculation by stating he is “here for another term,” following an erroneous June report that briefly fueled rumors. Younger justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor (both 71), show no reported health concerns or plans to step down. Earlier 2026 discussion focused on possible strategic timing ahead of midterms, yet the continued absence of confirmed retirements, adverse developments, or official statements has solidified market expectations that the current nine-justice composition will remain intact through December.