In Tennessee's 9th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 6, trader consensus slightly favors state Rep. Justin Pearson at 36.5% implied probability over incumbent Rep. Steve Cohen at 26% and activist DeVante Hill at 11.8%, reflecting a closely contested race amid uncertainty from the GOP-led legislature's approval of new congressional maps last week that fracture the majority-Black Memphis district. Ongoing lawsuits by Tennessee Democrats, including candidates, seek to block the changes before the election, potentially altering voter turnout and boundaries. Pearson's national profile from the 2023 Tennessee Three expulsion, progressive endorsements like Collective PAC, and stronger recent fundraising have boosted his lead as a generational challenger to Cohen's long incumbency, while Hill draws some activist support. Upcoming court rulings could shift dynamics.