The U.S. Justice Department’s recent moves to seek a federal indictment against former Cuban president Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue planes have shaped trader expectations. Multiple officials confirmed that prosecutors in Miami are preparing charges tied to the deaths of four Cuban-American pilots, with a grand jury review underway and a possible unsealing scheduled for May 20. This development aligns with the Trump administration’s broader pressure campaign on Havana, echoing prior actions against other regional leaders. The 72.5% implied probability for a “Yes” outcome reflects the skin-in-the-game consensus on these concrete DOJ steps, though final approval remains subject to standard legal processes and any last-minute shifts in executive priorities.