**U.S. nuclear testing remains under a voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, with no explosive nuclear detonations conducted since that time.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China initially raised the prospect of a shift, yet subsequent administration statements clarified that efforts would focus on non-explosive activities such as subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than full-yield nuclear tests. Recent NNSA work at the Nevada National Security Site has centered on chemical high-explosive trials to refine detection algorithms for foreign low-yield or decoupled detonations, particularly those attributed to China, without producing nuclear yields. Missile and reentry vehicle flight tests, along with National Ignition Facility experiments on plutonium performance, support modernization but fall short of the market’s definition of a nuclear test. These factors, combined with technical, diplomatic, and institutional constraints, underpin trader consensus on low near-term probabilities.