**Choka Choka by Anitta and Shakira leads the Best Latin category at the 2026 VMAs with the strongest implied probability among nominees, followed closely by Shakira’s Dai Dai with Burna Boy.** Nominations were announced in mid-August, with fan voting open through September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony. The frontrunners benefit from combined star power and dedicated fan bases actively mobilizing daily votes, while lower-probability entries like Bad Bunny’s Nuevayol, Karol G’s Papasito, and Rosalía’s La Perla face steeper competition in a category decided largely by public ballot rather than industry panels. Shakira’s dual nominations add momentum to both tracks, though Choka Choka’s earlier release, SNL performance, and collaborative energy give it a slight edge in current trader sentiment. Late voting surges or regional streaming spikes could still shift the outcome before polls close.