Washington's 4th Congressional District, an R+10 seat per Cook Partisan Voter Index where Donald Trump won 59% in 2024, remains rated Solid Republican by forecasters despite incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for the Republican Party ahead of the August 4 top-two primary. Recent candidate filings through the May 8 deadline produced a crowded GOP field featuring top fundraiser Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney ($524K receipts as of late March), state Sen. Matt Boehnke, and 2024 runner-up Jerrod Sessler, dwarfing Democrat John Duresky's $64K haul. A GOP-hosted debate on April 19 highlighted frontrunners, while an early February poll showed Duresky at 25% amid 27% undecideds; upcoming May 29 forum could clarify primary dynamics, but structural GOP advantages in this battleground-leaning yet reliably red district sustain the lopsided odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWA-04 House Election Winner
WA-04 House Election Winner
$26,839 Vol.
$26,839 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
20%
$26,839 Vol.
$26,839 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$13,712 Vol.
81%
Democratic Party
$13,127 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 4th Congressional District, an R+10 seat per Cook Partisan Voter Index where Donald Trump won 59% in 2024, remains rated Solid Republican by forecasters despite incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for the Republican Party ahead of the August 4 top-two primary. Recent candidate filings through the May 8 deadline produced a crowded GOP field featuring top fundraiser Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney ($524K receipts as of late March), state Sen. Matt Boehnke, and 2024 runner-up Jerrod Sessler, dwarfing Democrat John Duresky's $64K haul. A GOP-hosted debate on April 19 highlighted frontrunners, while an early February poll showed Duresky at 25% amid 27% undecideds; upcoming May 29 forum could clarify primary dynamics, but structural GOP advantages in this battleground-leaning yet reliably red district sustain the lopsided odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ভলিউম
$26,839শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 4th Congressional District, an R+10 seat per Cook Partisan Voter Index where Donald Trump won 59% in 2024, remains rated Solid Republican by forecasters despite incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for the Republican Party ahead of the August 4 top-two primary. Recent candidate filings through the May 8 deadline produced a crowded GOP field featuring top fundraiser Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney ($524K receipts as of late March), state Sen. Matt Boehnke, and 2024 runner-up Jerrod Sessler, dwarfing Democrat John Duresky's $64K haul. A GOP-hosted debate on April 19 highlighted frontrunners, while an early February poll showed Duresky at 25% amid 27% undecideds; upcoming May 29 forum could clarify primary dynamics, but structural GOP advantages in this battleground-leaning yet reliably red district sustain the lopsided odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$26,839শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington's 4th Congressional District, an R+10 seat per Cook Partisan Voter Index where Donald Trump won 59% in 2024, remains rated Solid Republican by forecasters despite incumbent Dan Newhouse's retirement, driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for the Republican Party ahead of the August 4 top-two primary. Recent candidate filings through the May 8 deadline produced a crowded GOP field featuring top fundraiser Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney ($524K receipts as of late March), state Sen. Matt Boehnke, and 2024 runner-up Jerrod Sessler, dwarfing Democrat John Duresky's $64K haul. A GOP-hosted debate on April 19 highlighted frontrunners, while an early February poll showed Duresky at 25% amid 27% undecideds; upcoming May 29 forum could clarify primary dynamics, but structural GOP advantages in this battleground-leaning yet reliably red district sustain the lopsided odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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