**Persistent low-water conditions at key Rhine gauges, driven by the 2026 summer drought and heatwaves, continue to shape market pricing.** As of early September, the Kaub gauge—the market’s reference point—reads around 35 cm, well below the 77 cm Gleichwertiger Wasserstand threshold for normal navigation levels, matching or approaching multi-decade lows seen in prior dry years. Prolonged dry weather across the basin, combined with reduced Alpine runoff, has extended the low-flow period into autumn. Traders assign the highest probability to an October recovery (43.5%), reflecting expectations that seasonal rainfall could gradually replenish flows, while the 28.5% chance for late September and 19.5% for no return before November capture uncertainty around the timing and sufficiency of precipitation. Limited near-term rain forecasts and historical patterns of autumn rebound support the current consensus distribution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWhen will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
October 1 - 31, 2026 44%
September 15 - 30, 2026 29%
No return before November 1, 2026 20%
Before September 15, 2026 11.0%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 15, 2026
Before September 15, 2026
11%
September 15 - 30, 2026
29%
October 1 - 31, 2026
44%
No return before November 1, 2026
20%
October 1 - 31, 2026 44%
September 15 - 30, 2026 29%
No return before November 1, 2026 20%
Before September 15, 2026 11.0%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 15, 2026
Before September 15, 2026
$1,421 Vol.
11%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$111 Vol.
29%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$210 Vol.
44%
No return before November 1, 2026
$181 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).**Persistent low-water conditions at key Rhine gauges, driven by the 2026 summer drought and heatwaves, continue to shape market pricing.** As of early September, the Kaub gauge—the market’s reference point—reads around 35 cm, well below the 77 cm Gleichwertiger Wasserstand threshold for normal navigation levels, matching or approaching multi-decade lows seen in prior dry years.
Prolonged dry weather across the basin, combined with reduced Alpine runoff, has extended the low-flow period into autumn. Traders assign the highest probability to an October recovery (43.5%), reflecting expectations that seasonal rainfall could gradually replenish flows, while the 28.5% chance for late September and 19.5% for no return before November capture uncertainty around the timing and sufficiency of precipitation. Limited near-term rain forecasts and historical patterns of autumn rebound support the current consensus distribution.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,923শেষ তারিখ
Nov 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).**Persistent low-water conditions at key Rhine gauges, driven by the 2026 summer drought and heatwaves, continue to shape market pricing.** As of early September, the Kaub gauge—the market’s reference point—reads around 35 cm, well below the 77 cm Gleichwertiger Wasserstand threshold for normal navigation levels, matching or approaching multi-decade lows seen in prior dry years.
Prolonged dry weather across the basin, combined with reduced Alpine runoff, has extended the low-flow period into autumn. Traders assign the highest probability to an October recovery (43.5%), reflecting expectations that seasonal rainfall could gradually replenish flows, while the 28.5% chance for late September and 19.5% for no return before November capture uncertainty around the timing and sufficiency of precipitation. Limited near-term rain forecasts and historical patterns of autumn rebound support the current consensus distribution.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
ভলিউম
$1,923শেষ তারিখ
Nov 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent low-water conditions at key Rhine gauges, driven by the 2026 summer drought and heatwaves, continue to shape market pricing.** As of early September, the Kaub gauge—the market’s reference point—reads around 35 cm, well below the 77 cm Gleichwertiger Wasserstand threshold for normal navigation levels, matching or approaching multi-decade lows seen in prior dry years. Prolonged dry weather across the basin, combined with reduced Alpine runoff, has extended the low-flow period into autumn. Traders assign the highest probability to an October recovery (43.5%), reflecting expectations that seasonal rainfall could gradually replenish flows, while the 28.5% chance for late September and 19.5% for no return before November capture uncertainty around the timing and sufficiency of precipitation. Limited near-term rain forecasts and historical patterns of autumn rebound support the current consensus distribution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা