Avengers: Doomsday leads the market at 73% implied probability because its status as a major Avengers crossover positions it for the largest opening-week box office haul among 2026 releases, driven by MCU scale, star power, and franchise momentum that historically outpaces solo superhero entries. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 26.5% on the strength of its dedicated fanbase and reliable performance, yet traders see it as unlikely to match an Avengers-level event film. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah sit near zero as single-franchise sequels with narrower appeal. Upcoming trailer drops, casting reveals, and presale tracking will likely reinforce or shift this consensus ahead of release windows.