Merab Dvalishvili’s confirmed path toward a bantamweight trilogy against Petr Yan drives the leading implied probability in this market. Both fighters and UFC officials have publicly stated that Yan’s next title defense will be the immediate rematch once Dvalishvili recovers from a recent nose injury, with a target window of summer 2026 on a numbered card such as UFC 330. Dvalishvili’s dominant 2025 title defenses and his unanimous-decision loss to Yan at UFC 323 further position the Russian as the consensus next opponent. Secondary contenders including Deiveson Figueiredo, Umar Nurmagomedov, and Cory Sandhagen remain viable alternatives only if the trilogy is delayed, while lower-priced names reflect limited recent activity or ranking proximity. Dvalishvili’s scheduled Real American Freestyle bout in late May serves as a tune-up rather than a UFC commitment.