Petr Yan’s return from back surgery has locked in a bantamweight title trilogy with Merab Dvalishvili as the clear next bout, driving the 73.5% market price through repeated confirmations from both fighters and UFC scheduling signals pointing to an August slot. Dvalishvili’s recent comments on recovery timelines and direct conversations with Yan reinforce the immediate rematch priority after Yan reclaimed the belt at UFC 323. Secondary options such as Sean O’Malley sit at 13.7% on the strength of prior title history and ongoing contender positioning, while Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong trail further behind at single-digit implied probabilities amid the division’s deeper rankings. This pricing reflects trader consensus on the most probable matchmaking path once Yan clears medical clearance in summer 2026.