The 82.5% implied probability that no U.S. court will rule the 2020 presidential election fraudulent reflects the consistent outcomes of prior litigation, in which more than sixty cases filed in state and federal courts—including those heard by judges appointed by both parties—were dismissed on the merits for lack of standing or credible evidence of widespread irregularities. Recent developments, such as the Justice Department’s ongoing review of 2020 ballots seized in Georgia and clemency decisions tied to related convictions, have not produced any new judicial findings overturning prior dismissals or establishing fraud on a scale that could change certified results. With statutes of limitations and doctrines of res judicata limiting fresh challenges years later, traders view additional litigation as unlikely to yield a contrary ruling absent unprecedented new admissible proof meeting rigorous evidentiary standards.