Below-normal conditions in the 2026 Atlantic basin, driven by a strong El Niño pattern increasing vertical wind shear and suppressing formation, explain the market's 83.5% implied probability against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA's August update forecasts just 2-6 hurricanes total and 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the June-November season, well below the 1991-2020 average of seven hurricanes and three majors. As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have developed with no hurricanes recorded. Colorado State University similarly projects below-average major landfall odds at roughly 17% for the continental U.S. coast. With the climatological peak near, model consensus and early-season observations reinforce limited intensification potential through year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% সম্ভাবনা
$340,136 Vol.
$340,136 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% সম্ভাবনা
$340,136 Vol.
$340,136 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal conditions in the 2026 Atlantic basin, driven by a strong El Niño pattern increasing vertical wind shear and suppressing formation, explain the market's 83.5% implied probability against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA's August update forecasts just 2-6 hurricanes total and 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the June-November season, well below the 1991-2020 average of seven hurricanes and three majors. As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have developed with no hurricanes recorded. Colorado State University similarly projects below-average major landfall odds at roughly 17% for the continental U.S. coast. With the climatological peak near, model consensus and early-season observations reinforce limited intensification potential through year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$340,136শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal conditions in the 2026 Atlantic basin, driven by a strong El Niño pattern increasing vertical wind shear and suppressing formation, explain the market's 83.5% implied probability against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA's August update forecasts just 2-6 hurricanes total and 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the June-November season, well below the 1991-2020 average of seven hurricanes and three majors. As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have developed with no hurricanes recorded. Colorado State University similarly projects below-average major landfall odds at roughly 17% for the continental U.S. coast. With the climatological peak near, model consensus and early-season observations reinforce limited intensification potential through year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ভলিউম
$340,136শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Below-normal conditions in the 2026 Atlantic basin, driven by a strong El Niño pattern increasing vertical wind shear and suppressing formation, explain the market's 83.5% implied probability against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA's August update forecasts just 2-6 hurricanes total and 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) for the June-November season, well below the 1991-2020 average of seven hurricanes and three majors. As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have developed with no hurricanes recorded. Colorado State University similarly projects below-average major landfall odds at roughly 17% for the continental U.S. coast. With the climatological peak near, model consensus and early-season observations reinforce limited intensification potential through year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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