The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, shaped by a developing El Niño pattern that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification, primarily drives the 84.5% market-implied odds against any Category 4 landfall before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with correspondingly low U.S. continental landfall probabilities. Historical data show Category 4 events remain infrequent even in active seasons, and current conditions through mid-August have produced no qualifying systems. Traders are monitoring remaining peak-season model runs and National Hurricane Center updates through November for any rapid intensification signals that could alter the consensus.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% সম্ভাবনা
$340,068 Vol.
$340,068 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% সম্ভাবনা
$340,068 Vol.
$340,068 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, shaped by a developing El Niño pattern that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification, primarily drives the 84.5% market-implied odds against any Category 4 landfall before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with correspondingly low U.S. continental landfall probabilities. Historical data show Category 4 events remain infrequent even in active seasons, and current conditions through mid-August have produced no qualifying systems. Traders are monitoring remaining peak-season model runs and National Hurricane Center updates through November for any rapid intensification signals that could alter the consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$340,068শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, shaped by a developing El Niño pattern that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification, primarily drives the 84.5% market-implied odds against any Category 4 landfall before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with correspondingly low U.S. continental landfall probabilities. Historical data show Category 4 events remain infrequent even in active seasons, and current conditions through mid-August have produced no qualifying systems. Traders are monitoring remaining peak-season model runs and National Hurricane Center updates through November for any rapid intensification signals that could alter the consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ভলিউম
$340,068শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, shaped by a developing El Niño pattern that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification, primarily drives the 84.5% market-implied odds against any Category 4 landfall before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) basin-wide, well below the 1991–2020 average of three, with correspondingly low U.S. continental landfall probabilities. Historical data show Category 4 events remain infrequent even in active seasons, and current conditions through mid-August have produced no qualifying systems. Traders are monitoring remaining peak-season model runs and National Hurricane Center updates through November for any rapid intensification signals that could alter the consensus.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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