**Strong regulatory barriers and CXMT's fully committed capacity through 2027 underpin the 94% market-implied probability against Apple purchasing its DRAM in 2026.** Apple has tested CXMT memory for potential China-only use in iPhones and MacBooks amid AI-driven shortages that raised prices sharply, yet CXMT—already at ~95% utilization—has prioritized domestic buyers like Huawei and Xiaomi while rejecting Apple's discount requests. Pentagon blacklisting, bipartisan Senate opposition, and the need for White House approval create major hurdles, with calls to add CXMT to the Entity List further limiting collaboration. No supply agreement has been reached, and Apple's lobbying has not overcome export controls or capacity shortfalls. A last-minute regulatory shift enabling limited China-market sourcing remains possible but faces tight timelines and political resistance before year-end.