Current satellite data place Hawaii’s reefs under Bleaching Watch conditions with Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) below the 4-unit threshold that defines Alert Level 1, contributing to the narrow 52.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Trader sentiment remains closely balanced because seasonal sea-surface temperature forecasts show only modest additional heat stress through late 2026, tempered by uncertainty over whether a developing El Niño will intensify Pacific warming enough to push DHW into the 4–8 range before year-end. Key variables include divergence among NOAA Coral Reef Watch and climate model runs on the timing and magnitude of marine heat anomalies, plus the influence of local oceanographic factors such as upwelling and trade-wind variability. Updated four-month outlooks and weekly DHW observations through fall will likely determine whether probabilities shift decisively.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?
Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?
46% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Jan 1, 2027
46% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".Current satellite data place Hawaii’s reefs under Bleaching Watch conditions with Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) below the 4-unit threshold that defines Alert Level 1, contributing to the narrow 52.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Trader sentiment remains closely balanced because seasonal sea-surface temperature forecasts show only modest additional heat stress through late 2026, tempered by uncertainty over whether a developing El Niño will intensify Pacific warming enough to push DHW into the 4–8 range before year-end. Key variables include divergence among NOAA Coral Reef Watch and climate model runs on the timing and magnitude of marine heat anomalies, plus the influence of local oceanographic factors such as upwelling and trade-wind variability. Updated four-month outlooks and weekly DHW observations through fall will likely determine whether probabilities shift decisively.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
ভলিউম
$770শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.phpResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".Current satellite data place Hawaii’s reefs under Bleaching Watch conditions with Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) below the 4-unit threshold that defines Alert Level 1, contributing to the narrow 52.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Trader sentiment remains closely balanced because seasonal sea-surface temperature forecasts show only modest additional heat stress through late 2026, tempered by uncertainty over whether a developing El Niño will intensify Pacific warming enough to push DHW into the 4–8 range before year-end. Key variables include divergence among NOAA Coral Reef Watch and climate model runs on the timing and magnitude of marine heat anomalies, plus the influence of local oceanographic factors such as upwelling and trade-wind variability. Updated four-month outlooks and weekly DHW observations through fall will likely determine whether probabilities shift decisively.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
ভলিউম
$770শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.phpResolver
0x65070BE91...Current satellite data place Hawaii’s reefs under Bleaching Watch conditions with Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) below the 4-unit threshold that defines Alert Level 1, contributing to the narrow 52.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Trader sentiment remains closely balanced because seasonal sea-surface temperature forecasts show only modest additional heat stress through late 2026, tempered by uncertainty over whether a developing El Niño will intensify Pacific warming enough to push DHW into the 4–8 range before year-end. Key variables include divergence among NOAA Coral Reef Watch and climate model runs on the timing and magnitude of marine heat anomalies, plus the influence of local oceanographic factors such as upwelling and trade-wind variability. Updated four-month outlooks and weekly DHW observations through fall will likely determine whether probabilities shift decisively.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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