The UK Home Office’s April revocation of Ye’s electronic travel authorisation, citing his presence as “not conducive to the public good” due to prior antisemitic remarks, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus at a 91.5% implied probability for no visit by June 30. That decision triggered the full cancellation of Wireless Festival, where he had been booked to headline all three July dates in London, and has since been echoed by entry restrictions in several other European countries. No subsequent official statements, appeals, or revised travel plans have surfaced in the past month to indicate any reversal. While an unexpected diplomatic intervention or personal appeal could theoretically alter the outcome before the deadline, the sustained government stance and lack of new developments leave little room for a shift in market sentiment ahead of June 30.