Neymar's inclusion in Brazil's final 26-man squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, despite a grade 2 calf strain sustained in mid-May while playing for Santos, underpins the elevated trader consensus around a Yes outcome. Coach Carlo Ancelotti has kept the 34-year-old all-time leading scorer in the group rather than opting for a fully fit replacement, citing ongoing recovery progress and the expectation that Neymar could resume full training with the squad shortly after missing the June 13 group-stage opener against Morocco. While the injury timeline makes an immediate return unlikely, including for the June 20 match versus Haiti, the three-to-four-week recovery window aligns with Brazil's group-stage schedule and potential knockout progression, where Neymar's attacking influence alongside players like Vinícius Júnior remains a key roster asset. Historical patterns of late-tournament returns by experienced forwards and the absence of any squad withdrawal further support the market's assessment of strong probability he features in at least one official match.