Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, continues to advocate for regime change from outside the country while emphasizing that any return would follow the Islamic Republic's collapse rather than precede it. Recent developments include his March 2026 CPAC appearance urging the Trump administration to prioritize ousting the current government over negotiations, plus April press events in Berlin and meetings with Iranian professionals in the United States. Ongoing U.S.-Israel military and economic pressure on Iran has fueled speculation about regime instability, yet no public security arrangements or logistical plans for Pahlavi's entry have emerged. Trader sentiment reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities tied to the absence of confirmed transition mechanisms, internal opposition coordination, or direct statements from Iranian authorities on allowing his visit before year-end milestones.