Russia continues its military campaign in Ukraine without launching conventional operations into additional countries as of mid-November 2026. Ongoing trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi have centered on territorial demands and European security architecture, with Russia rejecting compromises on NATO expansion or foreign troops in Ukraine while agreeing to a major prisoner exchange. Hybrid activities, including attributed sabotage, cyber incidents, and bomb threats targeting European infrastructure and schools, have escalated but remain below the threshold of direct invasion. Resource constraints from the Ukraine conflict, NATO reinforcements, and active diplomacy limit prospects for new conventional moves into neighbors such as Moldova or the Baltic states. Further negotiation rounds and any shifts in Western support represent key near-term variables.