Tesla’s Cybercab production began slowly at Giga Texas in early 2026 with initial units rolling off the line, but the company’s July 2026 shareholder letter explicitly removed targets for volume production this year while signaling sharply higher capital spending and ongoing manufacturing ramp challenges. Traders see an 82.5% implied probability of “No” because actual retail sales of a steering-wheel-less vehicle at $30,000 or below require not only scaled output and regulatory approvals for unsupervised autonomy but also confirmed deliveries to qualifying customers by year-end—milestones that remain distant given current timelines and historical slippage. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 earnings updates on production rates, Full Self-Driving software progress, and any state-level autonomous vehicle certifications.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড18% সম্ভাবনা
$48,441 Vol.
$48,441 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
18% সম্ভাবনা
$48,441 Vol.
$48,441 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab production began slowly at Giga Texas in early 2026 with initial units rolling off the line, but the company’s July 2026 shareholder letter explicitly removed targets for volume production this year while signaling sharply higher capital spending and ongoing manufacturing ramp challenges. Traders see an 82.5% implied probability of “No” because actual retail sales of a steering-wheel-less vehicle at $30,000 or below require not only scaled output and regulatory approvals for unsupervised autonomy but also confirmed deliveries to qualifying customers by year-end—milestones that remain distant given current timelines and historical slippage. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 earnings updates on production rates, Full Self-Driving software progress, and any state-level autonomous vehicle certifications.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
ভলিউম
$48,441শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab production began slowly at Giga Texas in early 2026 with initial units rolling off the line, but the company’s July 2026 shareholder letter explicitly removed targets for volume production this year while signaling sharply higher capital spending and ongoing manufacturing ramp challenges. Traders see an 82.5% implied probability of “No” because actual retail sales of a steering-wheel-less vehicle at $30,000 or below require not only scaled output and regulatory approvals for unsupervised autonomy but also confirmed deliveries to qualifying customers by year-end—milestones that remain distant given current timelines and historical slippage. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 earnings updates on production rates, Full Self-Driving software progress, and any state-level autonomous vehicle certifications.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$48,441শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s Cybercab production began slowly at Giga Texas in early 2026 with initial units rolling off the line, but the company’s July 2026 shareholder letter explicitly removed targets for volume production this year while signaling sharply higher capital spending and ongoing manufacturing ramp challenges. Traders see an 82.5% implied probability of “No” because actual retail sales of a steering-wheel-less vehicle at $30,000 or below require not only scaled output and regulatory approvals for unsupervised autonomy but also confirmed deliveries to qualifying customers by year-end—milestones that remain distant given current timelines and historical slippage. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 earnings updates on production rates, Full Self-Driving software progress, and any state-level autonomous vehicle certifications.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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