The Chicago Bears’ stadium decision has narrowed to Arlington Heights in Illinois or Hammond, Indiana, with a final choice expected by late spring or early summer 2026. Recent passage of the megaprojects bill through the Illinois House, along with committee advancement in the Senate, has bolstered prospects for tax incentives and infrastructure support at the team-owned Arlington Heights site, where planning studies are already complete. This legislative momentum has shifted trader consensus toward the Bears remaining in Illinois, as Indiana’s competing offer faces fewer immediate hurdles but lacks the same land ownership advantage. Ongoing political friction from Chicago’s mayor adds uncertainty yet has not derailed the suburban Illinois option, keeping the probability of departure by year-end limited despite the compressed timeline.