Strong bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Mexico has kept the prospect of a U.S. invasion remote through August 2026. Mexican authorities have conducted major operations against cartels, completed large-scale extraditions of suspects, and expanded intelligence sharing, while President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly affirmed sovereignty limits on foreign forces. Rhetoric from the Trump administration early in the year raised the possibility of unilateral strikes, but joint efforts and congressional constraints on military action without authorization have channeled tensions into coordinated enforcement rather than direct intervention. Economic interdependence and shared interests in managing fentanyl flows further discourage escalation. A sudden breakdown in cooperation, large-scale attacks on U.S. personnel, or rapid deterioration in cartel-related violence could still shift assessments, though current diplomatic and operational patterns point to continued restraint.