Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center data show the 2026–27 El Niño already at very strong intensity, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies near +2.9°C and subsurface heat content supporting further strengthening. Multi-model ensembles, including NMME and ECMWF SEAS5, converge on an October–December or November–January peak exceeding +2.0°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index with over 90% probability, while the World Meteorological Organization highlights an unusually narrow and high-confidence outlook for persistence through early 2027. These observations and forecasts underpin the 94.3% market-implied odds for a super El Niño. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential shifts in equatorial wind patterns or model spread that could moderate the final peak strength before resolution criteria are met.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
94% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Mar 31, 2027
94% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center data show the 2026–27 El Niño already at very strong intensity, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies near +2.9°C and subsurface heat content supporting further strengthening. Multi-model ensembles, including NMME and ECMWF SEAS5, converge on an October–December or November–January peak exceeding +2.0°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index with over 90% probability, while the World Meteorological Organization highlights an unusually narrow and high-confidence outlook for persistence through early 2027. These observations and forecasts underpin the 94.3% market-implied odds for a super El Niño. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential shifts in equatorial wind patterns or model spread that could moderate the final peak strength before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
ভলিউম
$9,246শেষ তারিখ
Apr 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center data show the 2026–27 El Niño already at very strong intensity, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies near +2.9°C and subsurface heat content supporting further strengthening. Multi-model ensembles, including NMME and ECMWF SEAS5, converge on an October–December or November–January peak exceeding +2.0°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index with over 90% probability, while the World Meteorological Organization highlights an unusually narrow and high-confidence outlook for persistence through early 2027. These observations and forecasts underpin the 94.3% market-implied odds for a super El Niño. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential shifts in equatorial wind patterns or model spread that could moderate the final peak strength before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
ভলিউম
$9,246শেষ তারিখ
Apr 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center data show the 2026–27 El Niño already at very strong intensity, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies near +2.9°C and subsurface heat content supporting further strengthening. Multi-model ensembles, including NMME and ECMWF SEAS5, converge on an October–December or November–January peak exceeding +2.0°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index with over 90% probability, while the World Meteorological Organization highlights an unusually narrow and high-confidence outlook for persistence through early 2027. These observations and forecasts underpin the 94.3% market-implied odds for a super El Niño. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential shifts in equatorial wind patterns or model spread that could moderate the final peak strength before resolution criteria are met.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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