The overwhelming trader consensus favoring no pardon stems from the complete absence of federal charges, convictions, or legal proceedings against Tiger Woods that would justify executive clemency. As a veteran PGA Tour professional focused on competitive golf—including recent appearances at majors and senior events—Woods has no outstanding federal matters requiring intervention by June 30. Historical patterns show presidential pardons typically address documented cases with clear political or legal context, none of which apply here. While a sudden indictment or unrelated development could theoretically shift probabilities, current standings and form indicate no such trajectory exists, reinforcing the market’s near-certainty.