Traders assign a near-certain 98.8% implied probability to “No” on a Trump pardon for Tiger Woods by June 30 because the golfer faces only Florida misdemeanor DUI charges stemming from his March 27 rollover crash, with no federal offenses or national-security implications that typically prompt presidential clemency. Recent developments, including Woods pleading not guilty, agreeing to release prescription records, and stepping away from PGA Tour competition for inpatient treatment, have produced no public signals from the White House or Woods’ camp suggesting executive intervention. The misdemeanor nature of the case, combined with Trump’s historical pardon patterns favoring higher-profile or politically aligned figures, leaves little realistic path for action before the deadline. A sudden personal gesture or unexpected case escalation could still shift sentiment, though both remain remote given the current timeline and lack of precedent.