Ruling coalition control over Turkey’s parliament and explicit preference for the scheduled 2028 timeline underpin the near-certain market consensus against early presidential elections in 2026. The AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 331 seats and requires 360 votes under Article 116 to trigger a snap vote that would also permit President Erdogan another term; recent statements from presidential adviser Mehmet Ucum and MHP leader Devlet Bahceli have instead pointed to a March or April 2028 contest. Opposition calls from the CHP for immediate early elections have produced no procedural movement, while legal proceedings and party splits have further reduced pressure on the government. A sudden economic shock or unexpected cross-party agreement could still alter the calendar before year-end.