Strained China-Japan relations, rooted in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 comments on potential Japanese involvement in a Taiwan contingency, continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term Xi-Takaichi meeting. Beijing has criticized Tokyo over historical and Taiwan issues, including during Xi’s late-September 2026 state visit to Washington, where wartime narratives referencing Japan surfaced in U.S.-China discussions. Takaichi has reaffirmed the U.S.-Japan alliance through recent Trump calls and meetings, with no bilateral engagement reported. Potential catalysts include multilateral forums such as the November APEC summit in China or December G20 in the United States, though persistent export controls, rare-earth tensions, and diplomatic friction suggest significant barriers to a prompt bilateral encounter.