**Lionel Messi’s advanced age (turning 39 during the 2026 tournament), recent hamstring fatigue concerns, and limited expected set-piece volume in a high-stakes World Cup environment underpin the 79% implied probability that he will not score directly from a free kick.** Messi remains Argentina’s captain and creative focal point as defending champions, yet his MLS minutes with Inter Miami have shown fewer direct free-kick attempts and a modest recent conversion rate (two goals from 19 attempts in 2026). A late-May muscle overload forced his substitution and prompted precautionary rest ahead of Argentina’s training camp, raising questions about full fitness and minutes in a congested group stage featuring Algeria, Austria, and Jordan. Historical patterns reinforce the market’s caution: Messi has rarely converted World Cup free kicks across five prior tournaments, and at this stage of his career his role often emphasizes link-up play and penalties over dead-ball specialization. While his career tally exceeds 70 direct free-kick goals and he retains elite technique, the combination of physical management, fewer opportunities, and tournament variance supports traders’ strong lean toward “No.”