Scientific consensus from the USGS holds that magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to release the required energy, with the historical maximum at 9.5 in Chile in 1960. Ongoing global monitoring through 2026 shows only events up to magnitude 7.7, consistent with typical subduction zone patterns and far below any threshold for extreme escalation. With resolution approaching by the end of 2026, trader-implied odds near 99% reflect this established physical limit and the brief remaining window, though model refinements on fault scaling could theoretically introduce minor uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert10.0 oder höher Erdbeben vor 2027?
Ja
1% Chance
$807,553 Vol.
$807,553 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
Ja
1% Chance
$807,553 Vol.
$807,553 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Scientific consensus from the USGS holds that magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to release the required energy, with the historical maximum at 9.5 in Chile in 1960. Ongoing global monitoring through 2026 shows only events up to magnitude 7.7, consistent with typical subduction zone patterns and far below any threshold for extreme escalation. With resolution approaching by the end of 2026, trader-implied odds near 99% reflect this established physical limit and the brief remaining window, though model refinements on fault scaling could theoretically introduce minor uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$807,553Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Scientific consensus from the USGS holds that magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to release the required energy, with the historical maximum at 9.5 in Chile in 1960. Ongoing global monitoring through 2026 shows only events up to magnitude 7.7, consistent with typical subduction zone patterns and far below any threshold for extreme escalation. With resolution approaching by the end of 2026, trader-implied odds near 99% reflect this established physical limit and the brief remaining window, though model refinements on fault scaling could theoretically introduce minor uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$807,553Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Scientific consensus from the USGS holds that magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to release the required energy, with the historical maximum at 9.5 in Chile in 1960. Ongoing global monitoring through 2026 shows only events up to magnitude 7.7, consistent with typical subduction zone patterns and far below any threshold for extreme escalation. With resolution approaching by the end of 2026, trader-implied odds near 99% reflect this established physical limit and the brief remaining window, though model refinements on fault scaling could theoretically introduce minor uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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